New EU sanctions to have only marginal effect on Russia’s oil exports — analysts

Business & Economy February 25, 2025, 12:44

Dmitry Kasatkin, partner at Kasatkin Consulting, said that the ban on temporary storage, including in the key hubs in Rotterdam, and in Greek and Polish ports, will have little effect on Russian oil supplies

MOSCOW, February 25. /TASS/. New EU restrictions against Russian oil, including a ban on its temporary storage, will have a marginal effect on the country’s oil exports, experts told TASS.

The European Union has imposed a 16th sanctions package on Russia that involves a ban on providing temporary storage facilities for Russian oil and petroleum products in the EU "free zones", regardless of the cost of goods and the final destination.

Dmitry Kasatkin, partner at Kasatkin Consulting, said that the ban on temporary storage, including in the key hubs in Rotterdam, and in Greek and Polish ports, will have little effect on Russian oil supplies.

"Previously, these ports made it possible to optimize logistics by reducing costs, now some of the oil will have to be redirected using the ports in Turkey, Egypt or North Africa, where storage capacity is limited. This will slightly increase delivery times, transportation costs and increase pressure on prices - discounts on Russian oil may increase at the time of logistics restructuring," he says.

Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the Center for Analysis of commodity markets at the Institute of Energy and Finance, believes that the new sanctions will have no strong impact. He said the transshipment of oil and petroleum products at sea is now quite common.

"And, apparently, some exporters will switch to it, and in cases where it is unprofitable, they will use Turkish and Egyptian ports," the expert suggests.

As for the medium-term perspective, according to Kasatkin, the new sanctions will stimulate the development of their own infrastructure in Russia’s Far East. The expert added that now 80% of Russian oil goes to India and China, which reduces the global effect of the ban.

"We should not forget about the opposite effect for the EU - the ports will lose a stable source of income, just as logistics companies will lose part of their business," he concluded.

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