MOSCOW, December 24. /TASS/. Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Italy and Moldova will be the most affected by the potential termination of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine starting 2025, as they will have to buy more expensive LNG or scale up coal consumption. Hungary, which has purchased a portion of gas via this route to resell it to Austrian OMV recently, is also partly exposed to the end of supplies via Ukrainian territory, experts polled by TASS suggest.

"Around 15-16 bln cubic meters of gas will be pumped via the Ukrainian corridor in 2024. Only a third of this volume may be theoretically transferred to the Turkish corridor. Austria, Slovakia, Moldova are the main countries receiving gas flowing via Ukraine," Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, and expert at the InfoTEK analytical center Alexander Frolov said.

Slovakia and Austria maintain the strongest reliance on supplies through Ukraine from EU countries. They will be forced to agree on alternative ways to receive gas from Russia, mainly via TurkStream, Director of the Institute for Global Market Studies Alexey Bobrovsky said. Moreover, those two countries will have to organize reverse-flow supplies from Germany (via the Czech Republic in particular) or from Italy, Alexey Belogoryev, research director of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, added. In both cases it is suggested to use regasified liquefied natural gas, possibly Russian in particular, as a source of gas, experts believe.

Central European countries can import LNG through third countries (via Germany in the first place) indeed, which will be more expensive due to more challenging logistics though, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman added. That said, for the Czech Republic the use of Russian gas is more economically advantageous, but not necessarily, while Italy will boost purchases from Algeria, which will become the largest supplier for it.

"According to data provided by ENTSOG, Slovakia has already partially shifted to Turkish transit (via Hungary), hypothetically, the country’s remaining need for Russian gas may be supplied at the cost of its further growth, though Austria will have nothing then. Meanwhile despite brave statements by Austrian politicians, it is not yet clear what gas Austria plans to replenish its gas stock with in 2025," Belogoryev said. Slovakia may need at least 2 bln cubic meters of Russian gas next year, while Austria may require at least 3 bln cubic meters. That said, both countries can well get through the upcoming winter by spending huge reserves from underground gas storage facilities.

Moreover, the termination of Ukrainian transit may partially affect Hungary as well. According to Frolov, it receives gas for its own consumption largely via TurkStream, but since suspension of direct supplies from Russia to Austria Hungary has purchased part of gas through the Ukrainian corridor to resell it to the Austrian OMV company. Meanwhile, from the viewpoint of energy security, Hungary is also interested in maintenance of the Ukrainian transit alternative.

However, Moldova and Transnistria in particular may be hit the hardest by the end of supplies from Russia. It has no economic alternative to gas supplies from Russia, equally as reserves of it of its own, while all main routes are connected with transportation through Ukraine, experts noted. Whether the pumping of Russian gas to Moldova will remain depends on political decisions made.

"From Romania there is only one direct gas pipeline Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau with the capacity of 1.5 bln cubic meters per year. Even in the event of maximum utilization, which is not expected soon, it can only cover around 50% of Moldova’s annual consumption. All the remaining alternatives are connected with transit through Ukraine, including the employment in the reverse flow of the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline (prior to 2020 Gazprom transported gas through it to Turkey and the Balkan countries)," Belogoryev said, adding that for Moldova the termination of transit even for a week means an unprecedented total energy crisis.

Kaufman did not rule out that without Russian gas Moldova will have to partially replace it with coal, which logistically is much easier to import.

On December 16, Moldova introduced a state of emergency due to the expected termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine starting January 1. Prime Minister Dorin Recean said in early December that the termination of supplies of Russian gas to Transnistria, which generates up to 80% of electricity consumed in Moldova, will not merely entail a dramatic rise in electricity prices but may trigger a humanitarian disaster in the winter.

The agreement on transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory, which stipulates the pumping of 40 bln cubic meters per year, expires at the end of 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin said at his combined annual press conference and Q&A session on December 19 that there would definitely be no new contract for Russian gas transit via Ukraine but Moscow and Gazprom would get over it. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal said earlier that Kiev would terminate Russian gas transit at 07:00 a.m. local time (05:00 a.m. GMT) on January 1, 2025, adding that the restart of transit via the Ukrainian gas transportation system is possible at a request of the European Commission unless this is Russian gas.