MOSCOW, December 12. /TASS/. Oversupply on the global oil market may increase from 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd next year, if the OPEC+ countries start to boost production from the end of March, according to an estimate contained in the December report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency notes that the OPEC+ decision to once again extend voluntary oil production cuts has reduced the potential oversupply that may arise on the world market next year. However, overproduction by some OPEC+ countries and increased production by non-OPEC+ countries will leave the market with a comfortable supply volume.

Gradual exit from the OPEC+ voluntary restrictions planned for the end of March 2025 will increase the excess supply on the market from 950,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd.

"If OPEC+ does begin unwinding the voluntary cuts from the end of March 2025, this overhang would rise to 1.4 mln bpd," the report says.

At a ministerial meeting on December 5, OPEC+ countries agreed to extend voluntary production restrictions in the amount of 2.2 million bpd for the entire first quarter of 2025 amid low winter demand. The gradual exit from these restrictions will last until September 2026.

Initially, the start of a gradual increase in production was planned for October 2024, but then it was shifted until December, and then until the end of 2024.