MURMANSK, October 25. /TASS/. The United States is concerned about Russia's growing abilities in the Arctic and eyes the region as a potential geopolitical confrontation point and a possible theater of military operations, however, an open military conflict is not probable, Alexey Fadeev, Doctor of Economics, deputy chairman of the public council at the St. Petersburg Committee for Arctic Affairs told TASS.

In summer, the US Department of Defense announced a new version of the Arctic Strategy, having updating approach to the region for the first time since 2019. The Pentagon explained the update by changed geopolitics and the Arctic's transformation into a platform of "strategic competition", saying the United States and its allies must be ready to respond jointly to this challenge. In autumn, Canada announced plans to create a coalition with the Nordic countries on security in the Arctic without involving Russia.

"The United States has adopted a few Arctic strategies, where all of them were of a "military" character," the expert said. "The United States is concerned about the strengthening cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic, as well as about Russia's growing abilities in this region, which, as they say, potentially pose a threat to the territory of the United States and its allies. The US Department of Defense adds the Arctic region to the list of potential theaters of military operations along with the Indo-Pacific, European, Middle Eastern and African regions."

The Arctic has always been positioned as a territory of cooperation, not confrontation, he continued. However, in recent years, the United States and its NATO allies have become noticeably more active. They conduct regular large-scale military exercises in the region, deploy new Arctic groupings, intensify strategic and reconnaissance flights, and continue to patrol the Arctic seas with strategic submarines carrying nuclear and conventional precision weapons.

"The activity of the United States, Canada and Denmark is even bigger than that in the Cold War years," he said. "The Arctic states are rapidly upgrading armed forces, including for possible response to problems in the region. The situation is complicated by the lack of effective international security regimes in the Arctic, and by the increasing activities of non-regional states that will support the players who offer better conditions in Arctic projects. Military activity has been increasing in the Spitsbergen archipelago that has a telemetry station connected to the North Atlantic alliance system. In the waters close to the archipelago, NATO combat aircraft have been practicing combat missions in the Far North conditions."

The risk of conflict

All these aspects cause concerns and require a response. However, the situation is not likely to lead to an open military conflict, the expert said, since Russia has obvious geographical, economic and military advantages in the Arctic: the Russian Federation owns more than half of the Arctic shelf, it has the Northern and icebreaking fleets, and develops actively the Northern Sea Route.

"The measures that Russia has been undertaking to protect its geopolitical interests in high latitudes look very timely. The key aspect here could be the comprehensive development of seaport infrastructures and shipping options in waters of the Northern Sea Route, the Barents, White and Pechora Seas, as well as the creation of a maritime operations headquarters to manage navigation. Higher efficiency of the Northern Sea Route's economic use can give Russia a key advantage in this geopolitical confrontation, given the high military and transport risks on both sides of the Suez Canal," he told TASS.

In addition to logistics, it is important for Russia to continue developing base infrastructures and operational equipment in high latitudes, to supply the Russian Federation's Armed Forces with special weapons and equipment adapted to Arctic conditions, as well as to ensure the Russian presence in a number of areas, in particular in the Spitsbergen archipelago. However, he stressed, the programs to upgrade the Russian Armed Forces and to build up the military presence in the Arctic Zone are not directed against any countries in the region, although Western countries, led by the United States, have concerns of the kind.

"The ability to work in partnership is a distinctive feature of Russia's cooperation in the Arctic, where a number of energy projects with foreign partners have been implemented, and where new international cooperation initiatives are of a strategic nature. I would like to express hope that the Arctic will retain the status of a territory of cooperation, and not of economic and military confrontation," the expert said in conclusion.