Experts expect Bank of Russia to raise key rate to 20%

Business & Economy October 23, 12:40

Experts do not expect the indicator to remain at 19%, since the regulator allowed for an additional increase back in September, and since then many new negative signals have been received

MOSCOW, October 23. /TASS/. According to experts interviewed by TASS, at the meeting on October 25, the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors may raise the key rate by 100 basis points (bp) to the psychological level of 20% per annum.

They also expect the regulator to give a signal of readiness to tighten monetary policy at subsequent meetings.

Some of the experts do not rule out the possibility of a sharp increase in the key rate - to 21%, which could become a new record after March 2022, when, against the backdrop of the aggravation of the geopolitical situation and economic risks, the rate reached 20%.

Experts do not expect the indicator to remain at 19%, since the regulator allowed for an additional increase back in September, and since then many new negative signals have been received.

The upcoming meeting of the Bank of Russia will be a "pivotal" one - based on its results, macro forecasts and the rate’s forecast trend will be updated.

Market participants' forecasts:

ACRA - 20%

Alfa-Bank - 20%

Alfa-Forex - 20%

PSB - 20%

VTB - 19-20%

RSHB Asset Management - 20%

Russian Standard - 20%

Renaissance Capital - 20%

Sovcombank - 20%

Alfa-Capital - 20%

Tsifra Broker - 20%

BCS World of Investment - 20%.

Veles Capital - 18%

Alfa-Capital - 19%

Finam - 20-21%

Pervaya Asset Management - 21%

Uralsib - 21%.

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