MOSCOW, October 16. /TASS/. Expectations of analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia for the average key rate in Russia have been raised for the entire forecast horizon, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast on the regulator's website.

Thus, the median forecast of the key rate for 2024 is 17.3% per annum (+0.2 pp). In October-December 2024, the average key rate is expected to be 20% per annum. The forecast for 2025 is 18% per annum (+1.9 pp), for 2026 - 12.5% per annum (+1.0 pp). The forecast for the end of the horizon, in 2027, is 9% per annum, which is above the median estimate of the neutral policy rate (8% per annum).

The forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2024 was also raised to 3.7% (by 0.1 pp compared to the September survey). According to the experts, the GDP will also grow by 1.8-1.9% in 2025-2027. The median estimate of long-term growth rates has not changed and remains at 1.8%. According to the estimates, GDP growth in 2027 will be 12.2% compared to 2021 (previously - 11.6%). The inflation forecast for 2024 was raised to 7.7 % (+0.4 pp compared to the September survey) and for 2025 - to 5.3 % (+0.5 pp). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target in 2026 and to remain at that level thereafter.

Unemployment forecasts for 2024-2026 have been lowered slightly. The analysts expect unemployment to fall to 2.5 % in 2024, to rise to 2.7% in 2025, to 2.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2026, and to return to the level of 2023 (3%) by the end of the forecast. Nominal wages, on the other hand, will increase - the forecast for 2024 is 17.2% (an increase of 1.2 pp). Then they expect growth to slow down - to 10.4% in 2025, to 7.6% in 2026 and to 6.5% at the end of the forecast. Calculations based on the analysts’ forecasts for nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will grow by 8.3% in 2024, by 3.9% in 2025, by 2.8% in 2026, and by 2.3% in 2027. Thus, by the end of the forecast period, real wages will be 27.9% higher than in 2021.

The ruble/dollar exchange rate forecast for 2024 is 91.2 rubles/dollar (assuming an average rate of 94.2 rubles/dollar in October-December 2024), 95 rubles/dollar in 2025, 97.5 rubles/dollar in 2026, and 99.7 rubles/dollar in 2027 (the ruble is 0.6-1.1% weaker than in the September survey).

The forecasts for the price of Brent oil have been slightly lowered. According to expectations, Brent oil will cost an average of $81 per barrel in 2024 (assuming an average price of $79 per barrel in October-December 2024). The price is then expected to fall to $77 per barrel in 2025, $75 per barrel in 2026, and $72 per barrel in 2027.