DUSHANBE, August 15. /TASS/. Analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) expect the refinancing rate, which has already been cut three times year-to-date, to be further reduced by the National Bank of Tajikistan by the end of this year.

The rate may be lowered at the next meeting of the regulator’s monetary policy committee on October 25, the development bank said in a note. The republic’s National Bank set the refinancing rate at 9% per annum starting August 5, having reduced it by 0.25%. In February 2024, the regulator’s committee lowered the refinancing rate from 10% to 9.5%, while in late April the rate was cut to 9.25%. Last year, the regulator reduced the rate twice - from 13% to 11% and later from 11% to 10%, though in the second half of the year the decision to keep the rate at 10% was taken twice.

"Loosening monetary policy is due to inflation maintained below the targeted range of 6% plus or minus 2% since November 2023," according to the note. In the first half of 2024 inflation in the republic amounted to 1.9%. Meanwhile monetary policy measures, as well as the government’s fiscal incentives, will facilitate inflation growth and return it to the targeted range by the end of 2024, EDB analysts noted.

Low inflation at the moment is due to strengthening of Tajikistan’s national currency, which has gained 2.5% since the end of Q1 2024, analysts said. As of March 31, the somoni exchange rate equaled 10.95 per $1, while the official exchange rate as of August 15 is around 10.64 somoni per $1, according to the National Bank’s figures. Moreover, the growth of prices in the country holds weak pressure from prices for energy resources and food products imported by the republic due to the current global environment, the EDB said.

The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial organization, which carries out investment activities on the territory of Eurasia. The organization includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, which became its full-fledged member in 2009.