MOSCOW, July 16. /TASS/. Prices at the TTF gas hub in Europe in 2024 will be 20% lower than the previous year, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the gas market.

"Forward curves as of the beginning of July 2024 suggest that TTF is set to average 20% below its 2023 levels in 2024 at around $10.5/MBtu (mln British thermal units - TASS)," the report says.

Meanwhile, spot gas prices in the world increased in the second quarter of 2024 due to tighter supply and demand indicators combined with geopolitical uncertainty. In particular, spot TTF prices in Europe increased by 15% compared to the previous quarter, more than double the average for the second quarters of 2016-2020. Lower LNG supplies (down nearly 20% year-on-year), unplanned outages in Norway and renewed uncertainties over Russian gas supplies have put upward pressure on prices.

"Historic volatility on TTF month-ahead prices averaged 53% in Q2 2024, remaining almost 50% above the Q2 average volatility displayed in the 2011-2021 period. This relatively high level of volatility reflects a still tight global gas balance and the market’s nervousness amid geopolitical tensions," the IEA stresses.

"Asian spot LNG prices retain their premium over European hub prices in 2024, with JKM averaging USD 1/MBtu above TTF. This should support higher LNG flows towards the Asian markets," the report says.

According to the IEA, Henry Hub prices in the United States are set to remain close to their 2023 levels and average $2.40/MBtu in 2024.