BUDAPEST, March 11. /TASS/. The possible termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine should not affect its supplies to Hungary, gas can be supplied via the TurkStream gas pipeline and its branches through Bulgaria and Serbia, the press service of the Hungarian company Foldgazszallito (FGSZ), the operator of the national gas pipeline system, told TASS.

It was noted that almost all Russian gas for Hungarian consumers has been redistributed to the south, bypassing Ukraine. On the border with Serbia it is supplied through the gas distribution point in Kiskundorozma.

"The technical throughput of the Serbian-Hungarian checkpoint Kiskundorozma-2 is 8.4 billion cubic meters per year. This is the maximum volume that can be delivered to Hungary [via this route]," the FGSZ press service said.

According to the Hungarian company, "currently this [gas distribution] point at the border operates at a high throughput load, but the volume of transportation, of course, can be increased in accordance with its technical capabilities if there is sufficient interest from traders."

Until recently, Russian gas reached Hungary via several routes: through Ukraine, Slovakia and Austria, as well as via the TurkStream pipeline and further through Bulgaria and Serbia. As the interactive map on the FGSZ website shows, in recent months deliveries from the Austrian gas hub in Baumgarten, one of the largest in Europe, have been carried out in small volumes and irregularly.

Commentary from Gazprom's partners

Hungary receives Russia gas under contracts that were concluded between Gazprom Export and the Hungarian MVM CEEnergy.

When asked to comment on the intention of the Naftogaz of Ukraine not to renew the transit agreement with Gazprom after 2024, MVM CEEnergy told TASS that "as a growing regional company, it constantly monitors news about transit and takes all necessary steps to ensure uninterrupted gas supplies across contracts with suppliers."

"In addition, to increase the reliability of supply in the region, the company uses several sources," its press service noted.

Judging by the reaction of the Hungarian government, it has long been prepared for a possible termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The Minister of Foreign Affairs and External Economic Relations of Hungary, Peter Szijjarto, said back in August 2023 that the entire volume of Russian gas purchased under the contract could be supplied to his country via the TurkStream. According to him, it is possible thanks to the throughput capacity of the pipeline system between Turkey and Hungary, which is about 8.5 billion cubic meters.

Hungarian energy experts agree with Szijjarto. In particular, Tamas Pletser, an analyst at the Austrian banking group Erste, operating in Hungary, believes that the government expected this development of events, and it did not come as a surprise to the market. In a conversation with the online publication Index, he explained that Ukraine itself no longer needs Russian gas, since over the past two years its industrial production and population have sharply declined and gas production in the country now almost completely covers its domestic needs.

The European branch of the TurkStream, through which gas goes to Serbia and Hungary, has a throughput capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters per year, its capacity is not fully used. Bulgaria has refused to use Russian gas, but continues to transit it through its territory.

According to Pletser, Slovakia and Austria find themselves in a more difficult situation, although they are also taking measures to possibly replace the volumes of Russian gas that transit through Ukraine. Austria can receive the missing gas from Italy and Germany, and Slovakia - from the Polish gas corridor and in small quantities from Hungary, the expert believes. From Hungary, gas goes to Slovakia through Balassagyarmat (Nograd region) and to Ukraine through Beregdaroc in the Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg region (now the pipeline there operates in reverse mode).

Transit may continue

However, experts do not rule out the possibility of maintaining the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine if Naftogaz concludes pumping contracts not with Gazprom, but with European companies that will buy gas at the entrance to Ukrainian territory and pay for its further transportation. Continuing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2025 is in the interests of the European Union, Ukraine and Russia, the weekly Vilag Gazdasag believes. In his opinion, this can be explained very simply: some EU countries still need Russian pipeline gas, Ukraine needs money for transit, and Russia needs money for gas supplies.

Last autumn, the head of Naftogaz, Alexey Chernyshov, said that the company would not renew the gas transit agreement with Gazprom, which expires at the end of 2024. He stressed that Ukraine is not terminating the contract now only because of its European partners. On March 4, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal announced his country is ready to continue the transit of Russian gas if there is a request from European countries.