MOSCOW, March 7. /TASS/. The Northern Sea Route, having hit a historic record in cargo traffic, could be an alternative to the Eastern polygon of railways, First Deputy Minister for Development of the Far East and Arctic Gadzhimagomed Guseynov said at the IX International Scientific and Practical Conference - Far East and Arctic: Sustainable Development.

President Vladimir Putin in the recent address to the Federal Assembly expressed the opinion the country had "missed" the importance of increasing the capacity of the BAM and Tran-Siberian railways. The necessary pace is expected by 2030, and the cargo traffic will reach 210 million tons per year.

"In 2023, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) hit a historic record - 36.2 million tons, including the so-called transit through NSR, which reached a record value of 2.1 million tons. <...> According to the forecast, based on agreements we have signed with key consignors, by 2030 almost 200 million tons of cargo [will be transported via NSR], by 2035 - 220 million tons. You can see the amounts. Already nowadays it has become a clear alternative to the Eastern polygon of railways," Guseynov said.

The Eastern polygon of railway unites the Trans-Siberian railway and the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM). The routes are operating at the capacity limit, and following the president's order, the Eastern polygon undergoes an upgrade. The president has stressed a few times this work needs to be built up.

Nowadays, the deputy minister continued, the Eastern polygon's throughput capacity makes 173 million tons, and by the end of 2024 it will reach 180 million tons. The Northern Sea Route is a shorter route between Russia's West and East, and in the future it will be a full-fledged trade route between Europe and Asia, especially in light of the current geopolitical situation. "The instability in the Middle East multiplies costs of transportation via the Suez Canal. Recently, 4-5 months ago, the transportation of one container cost about $1,300, while now the cost from Shanghai to Rotterdam is about $4,000. Against this background, NSR remains a stable and safe route," he summed up.

What matters to shippers

According to Sergey Zybko, CEO of the state-run Glavsevmorput (NSR's authority), the growing cargo traffic first of all requires the development of the nuclear icebreaker fleet. "A group of seven nuclear-powered icebreakers, owned by Rosatom, and three icebreakers of the Ministry of Transport have been working on NSR. Another five nuclear-powered icebreakers are under construction, including the Rossiya of the Leader-type project - the most powerful ever in the icebreaker fleet and the most powerful ship in general, <...> we plan that at the end of this year the Yakutia nuclear-powered icebreaker will enter service, another icebreaker, the Leningrad, has been laid, <...> we are about to lay the Stalingrad nuclear-powered icebreaker, " he said.

However, the Northern Sea Route is not just icebreakers, and therefore Glavsevmorput, a division of the Rosatom state-run Corporation, continues to analyzing the cargo flow and to attract ship owners. "We can quickly adjust key components for the year-round operation of this route, including the operation of ports, icebreaker escort and the cargo fleet. We realize there are ports located outside the Northern Sea Route, but they belong either to the Arctic or the Far East, thus we are working together with the Ministry for Development of the Far East and Arctic to ensure the successful sailing in NSR's eastern sector. <...> We have been working hard to start the year-round navigation as soon as possible - for this, nuclear-powered icebreakers must be not more than 500 miles apart from each other," he added.

For example, increasing to nine the number of icebreakers in NSR's Eastern sector will significantly improve the cargo transportation there. In case of nine icebreakers, the distance between them will shrink from 500 miles to 200 miles. "This is a very important factor to attract shippers. Every shipper, consignee wants to know with what time accuracy the vessels will deliver their cargo, when the cargo gets to the desired port," the expert explained.

Safety in the Arctic

For the safety in the Arctic, including the Northern Sea Route, the macroregion needs an integrated safety system. In work on its concept, it is necessary to mind the risks that some enterprises in the Arctic potentially carry. In order to reinsure such facilities, Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations has identified four key points.

"While the western Arctic is more or less settled, and Murmansk and Arkhangelsk have certain forces and means, in the direction slightly to the right, beginning from Dudinka and further on to the east, there are no whatsoever forces or means of the ministry, for example, up to Anadyr. At the permanent sites of the Maritime Rescue Service there may be a person sitting in Dixon and responsible for a huge navigation area - a marine rescue coordination center, and its forces are either on duty in NSR waters, or remain on hold in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk," the ministry's Director of the Department of Educational, Scientific and Technical Activities Alexander Bondar said.

The four key points are Sabetta, Dixon, Tiksi and Pevek. "Pevek is probably the only project that the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has managed to complete, and in a week, on March 15, the ministry will launch the first modern Arctic Integrated Emergency Rescue Center in Pevek. In the summer, an air grouping will be on duty there, and from March 15 - rescuers and the day-to-day management - those who will communicate with the unified duty and dispatch services in municipalities, regions and with many other services that have dispatchers, that is, those who actually make top-level decisions at initial stages of response to emergency situations," the official added.

A unified system of state environmental monitoring has been developed for the Arctic, including an integrated system to assess environmental pollution.

"I would like to stress that we need to move on from static models of this processing transmission to dynamic three-dimensional models, where from the assessment we will forecast how situations will develop. These options will be based on artificial intelligence data processing. <...> The work to create digital models to process environmental information is an idea we would like to initiate," said Elena Zlenko, co-chair of the Federation Council's Committee on Agrarian and Food Policy and Environmental Management, and the conference's head of the organizing committee.

The Far East and Arctic: Sustainable Development 9th international scientific and practical conference ran at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation in Moscow on March 5-6. TASS was the event's general information partner.