MOSCOW, January 17. /TASS/. It appears difficult to reach the oil demand by peak by the end of the current ten-year period and not a single reliable short-term or long-term outlook contains such statements anymore, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in his article titled "A history of 'unrealized' peaks" and posted on the OPEC’s website.

The idea of oil supply peaking was regularly mentioned globally since 1880s, Al Ghais noted. The exhaustion in the US was predicted in late 19th century due to the production drop at Pennsylvania oilfields. In the middle of the 20th century, geologists predicted reaching a global peak in oil production by 2000 at a level of about 34 million barrels a day (mb/d). "In reality, this level was reached in 1967 and global crude oil production was over 65 mb/d by the turn of the century," the OPEC Secretary General said.

Forecasts of peak oil supplies in 2004-2005 followed, Al Ghais noted. "Throughout history, repeated predictions of peak oil supply have repeatedly been moved further into the future, and at ever-higher levels," the OPEC Secretary General said. "In 2024, oil supply continues to expand, driven by improved economics and continuous advancements in technology that have helped lower costs, open up new frontiers and add new reserves. Moreover, there are no concerns about the available resource base, which is large enough for this century and beyond," he added.

There is little talk at present about the peak oil supply and the focus shifted to the peak oil demand, Al Ghais stressed. "Today’s demand level has also moved well past pre-COVID-19 levels, with some forecasters suggesting at the start of the pandemic that oil demand levels would never again surpass those seen in 2019," he noted.

"Today, what is clear is that peak oil demand is not showing up in any reliable and robust short-and medium-term forecasts," Al Ghais continued, citing forecasts for 2023 and 2024. OPEC believes that oil demand growth will be 4.7 mb/d over the two years, "with ESAI at over 4 mb/d too, and Rystad and Argus close to this level. Even the IEA sees growth of 3.4 mb/d over the 2023-24 period," he noted.

"Given these growth trends, it is a challenge to see peak oil demand by the end of the decade, a mere six years away," the OPEC Secretary General said.

"Ultimately, peak oil supply has never come to pass, and predictions of peak oil demand are following a similar trend. Time and again, oil has defied expectations regarding peaks. Logic and history suggest that it will continue to do so," he concluded.