MOSCOW, December 13. /TASS/. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 2.5 mln barrels per day (bpd) to 102.1 mln bpd, OPEC said in its report.

The organization also left unchanged its forecast for 2024, which envisages an increase in oil demand by 2.2 mln bpd to 104.4 mln bpd.

Oil demand next year is expected to be supported by robust global GDP growth as economic activity in China continues to improve.

The report also noted that OPEC countries (except Iran, Libya, and Venezuela) participating in the OPEC+ deal reduced oil production in November 2023 by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 22.751 mln bpd, mainly due to production cuts Angola and Iraq.

As part of the deal, ten OPEC countries within the OPEC+ deal were supposed to reduce production by 1.273 mln bpd from October 2022 to 25.416 mln bpd. In November, the real production volume of these countries amounted to 22.751 mln bpd, which is 2.665 mln bpd below the level stipulated by the OPEC+ agreement.

However, the parameters of the OPEC+ deal do not take into account voluntary production cuts, which a number of OPEC+ countries, including some OPEC countries, will adhere to from May 2023 to the end of 2024. The total volume of these cuts reaches 1.66 mln bpd. In addition, Saudi Arabia is further cutting production by another 1 mln bpd from July until the end of the Q1 of 2024.

At the same time, oil production in non-OPEC countries can grow by 1.8 mln barrels per day in 2023, OPEC said. The organization keeps the forecast of the prior month; in absolute terms, the figure can reach 67.6 mln barrels per day.

According to the Organization’s estimates, the increase in production of liquid hydrocarbons in the US will amount to 1.3 mln barrels per day in 2023. Brazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, Mexico, and China will be other growth drivers in 2023.

The uncertainty in the market remains because production failures due to weather conditions and risks of unscheduled maintenance for offshore oil producing facilities are not ruled out this year, OPEC noted.

The forecast of oil production growth in non-OPEC countries next year is maintained by OPEC at 1.4 mln barrels daily.

Meanwhile, oil production in Russia at the end of October 2023 remained at the level of July-September and amounted to 9.5 mln barrels per day. Production of liquid hydrocarbons in October increased by 55,000 bpd, averaging 10.9 mln bpd.