MOSCOW, October 26. /TASS/. Despite the high probability of the Bank of Russia will raise the key rate at the coming meeting on Friday, experts interviewed by TASS do not see any serious prerequisites for such steps.

However, they believe that at its meeting on Friday, October 27 the regulator will most likely raise the rate by 100 basis points to 14% per annum.

The last time the Bank of Russia raised the rate was on September 15 - by 100 b. p. to 13% per annum. As reasons for tightening monetary policy, the regulator mentioned high inflationary pressure in the national economy, as well as growth in domestic demand, which outpaced the possibility of expanding production and the weakening of the ruble in the summer months.

"There is a possibility of a rate hike on Friday, and judging by consensus surveys of economists, and also from previous statements by Central Bank representatives, it is quite high. But the question is: is there really a need to raise it? The goal of bringing inflation to the target 4% is beyond doubt. It promotes long-term financial planning, allows you to save and plan business projects. For both households and companies," Boris Kopeikin, First Deputy General Director of the Center for Strategic Research, told TASS. He recalled the significant acceleration of inflation in Russia in recent months amid rapid economic recovery, and in connection with exchange rate dynamics.

Economy does not react instantly

In the first half of the year oil prices were not so high, export price volumes became lower. But imports began to grow rapidly amid economic growth, increasing real incomes, building new supply chains and increasing confidence in the economy, Kopeikin went on.

"It resulted in the weakening of the ruble, which also contributed to price dynamics. But we must not forget that the Central Bank has already raised the rate several times. First by 1 percentage point in July, then quite sharply, up to 12%, to stop the decline of the ruble, in August, and again - up to 13% in September. The economy does not respond instantly. And according to the latest data, inflation is still too high," the analyst said, adding that the first signs of a slowdown, as well as a decline in demand for loans are increasingly obvious.

Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute of Applied Economic Research at RANEPA, does not see any serious risks for the economy if the rate is maintained.

"I think if the key rate remains at the same level, nothing bad will happen to the economy - inflation is already slowing down. However, due to public expectations and guided by its own considerations, the Central Bank will most likely raise the rate to 14%," he noted.

According to Abramov, in its decision the regulator proceeds from three factors, which can be seen in its official statements. The first one is month-to-month inflation rate, which is still high. The second one is the need to make ruble deposits a little more profitable so that Russians do not bring rubles to the foreign exchange market. The third one, according to the expert, is the Central Bank’s fears of "overheating" the economy.

"When the production capacity of companies is full, they do not have enough labor resources and companies are forced to pay candidates higher salaries, while production does not increase, this is not a very favorable situation. Increasing the amount of money in the hands of the population without increasing production will increase inflation, this is what the Central Bank is trying to avoid," Abramov concluded.

Exchange rate will no longer put pressure on prices

"The effects of previous rate increases will still appear. At the same time, the decline in demand will have an impact not only on prices, but also on the level of economic activity. The first signs of a slowdown in investment activity are already emerging. There is inertia here too," Kopeikin said. According to the expert, a significant part of the investment depends on the cost of the loan and the profitability of alternative financial investments. Even when the rate drops, investments will not immediately recover.

"But today’s investments mean additional goods and services tomorrow. Investments are now critically important for our economy - capacities are loaded, and there are not enough workers in many industries. For growth, productivity must be increased," he said. The expert noted that oil is now significantly more expensive than in the spring and early summer, and additional requirements have been introduced for the sale of foreign currency earnings.

"The ruble is strengthening. This means that in the near future the exchange rate will not put pressure on prices. Therefore, inflation will slow down in any case. And it’s time to decide on the future trajectory of the rate reduction," Kopeikin said.

Inflation in Russia

According to official data from the Federal Statistics Service, inflation in Russia from October 17 to October 23 accelerated to 0.24% against 0.15% a week earlier. Since the beginning of October, the price increase was 0.69% (by October 23). Since the beginning of this year prices grew by 5.32%. Annual inflation as of October 23 accelerated from 6.39% to 6.57%.

On September 22, the Economic Development Ministry published an updated forecast of the socio-economic development of the country for the period 2024-2026. According to the document, the ministry raised the forecast for inflation in Russia in 2023 from 5.3% to 7.5%.