MOSCOW, January 9. /TASS/. Russia's GDP in 2023 will continue to decline and by the end of the year the decline will reach 2.5-3%, according to General Director of the National Rating Agency Alina Rozentsvet.

"We anticipate that GDP will continue to fall in 2023. It will drop by 4-6% in the first half of the year. In our opinion, the end point of this decline will be reached by the middle of the year, after which the start of economic recovery is possible," she said in an interview with Izvestia.

At the same time, she noted that economic recovery is feasible under a variety of conditions, the most important of which is overcoming the shock associated with a likely decline in oil production. "By the end of 2023, we expect a decline in GDP at the level of 2.5-3%" Rozentsvet added.

She noted that, after accounting for inflation, the GDP indicator will not be able to return to its 2021 level before 2025. "The restructuring of the economy and the search for new suppliers and buyers will take time. The loss of main energy export markets, including the United States and the European Union, as well as price ceilings and other restrictive measures, will have a considerable impact on GDP volume. However, we believe that the figures are not the most important factor here," the expert stated.

The primary issue for the economy now, according to Rozentsvet, is "to ensure the economy's sustainable operation for the next 2-3 years and set a long-term, strategic vector for its development to overcome technological disparities and ensure sustainable development in the interests of future generations."

At the same time, she believes that the average price of Brent oil will be within $80-100 per barrel, and the discount for Russian Urals at the beginning of the year will be $20-30, so its average price in the first half of the year will be $60-65 per barrel. Rozentsvet believes that by the end of the year, Russian oil will be traded at around $95-110 per barrel.

In addition, the she noted that the optimal dollar rate for the Russian economy in 2023 is 75 rubles. At the same time, the key rate, according to the National Rating Agency forecasts, will be 6.5-8.5%, and inflation "will average at around 6.57%, but will gradually decrease," Rozentsvet said.