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Bank of Russia expects elevated inflation environment in 2023 with its further decline

The regulator’s board of directors downgraded its inflation outlook for 2022 to 11-13% from 12-15% at the meeting on September 16, noting that annual inflation would continue declining

MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia expects the elevated inflation environment to weaken by the end of 2023, with inflation declining to the 4% target in 2024, Deputy Central Bank Governor Alexey Zabotkin told a forum on Wednesday.

"Our baseline inflation outlook, which was revised in September, envisions inflation at 11-13% by the end of 2022, 5-7% in 2023 and the target of around 4% reached by the end of 2024 regarding annual inflation. It is necessary to understand that for annual inflation to reach 4% in December 2024 current rates of price growth, meaning quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, should be close to 4% as early as in early 2024 or late 2023. This outlook suggests a certain elevated inflation environment in the first half of next year, though by the end of next year current rates of price growth will stably return to 4%," he said.

The regulator’s board of directors downgraded its inflation outlook for 2022 to 11-13% from 12-15% at the meeting on September 16, noting that annual inflation would continue declining, including due to the influence of the base effect, despite the expected further increase in current price growth rates.

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