Bank of Russia may cut key rate to 14-15% per annum, experts say

Business & Economy April 08, 2022, 20:27

The high key rate holds back not only those who want to buy dollars, but also economic growth

MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia will continue to ease monetary policy if the balance of risks does not worsen in the future, say experts interviewed by TASS.

They believe that at the upcoming meeting on April 29, the Board of Directors of the regulator may lower the rate to 14-15% per annum.

On April 8, at an extraordinary meeting, the Board of Directors decided to reduce the key rate from 20% per annum to 17% starting from April 11.

According to Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director of Loko-invest Management Company, financial stability risks have mitigated which prompted the regulator to makes such a decision.

The protective measures taken earlier made it possible to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market in a short time, said Georgy Vashchenko, head of the department for trading operations on the Russian stock market at Freedom Finance.

Meanwhile, the high key rate holds back not only those who want to buy dollars, but also economic growth.

"On the one hand, people carried money to banks at a high rate, on the other hand, banks have nowhere to place them now. The primary placement market has risen, the demand for loans, with the exception of preferential mortgages, has collapsed," he explains.

The Bank of Russia will continue to ease monetary policy, experts say.

To stimulate economic growth, more precisely, to prevent a crisis in industry, a moderately eased monetary policy should be pursued, Vashchenko says.

But further reduction of the key rate will depend on statistical data on inflation and business activity, says Evgeny Koshelev, head of the Market Research and Strategy Office at Rosbank.

"According to preliminary data, inflation has exceeded 16%. If inflation quickly passes the peak, then in May we can expect a further reduction in the key rate, to approximately 13% per annum," Vashchenko notes.

However, analysts from Freedom Finance and SberCIB Investment Research do not rule out lowering the key rate to 14-15% per annum already at the upcoming meeting of the Board of Directors of the regulator on April 29, if the balance of risks does not worsen.

The management company Loko-invest predicts a reduction in the key rate to 11-12% by the end of the year and to 7-9% in 2023.

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