LONDON, March 31. /TASS/. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects a decline of Russia’s economic growth by 10% by the end of 2022 as a result of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine and zero growth in 2023, according to new research on the state of economy in the region released by the bank on Thursday.

"Sanctions on Russia are expected to remain for the foreseeable future, condemning the Russian economy to stagnation in 2023 (after a sharp GDP drop in 2022), with negative spill overs for a number of neighboring countries in eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia," according to the bank, which is the first international financial organization to publish an official economic forecast on the region since the special military operation started on February 24.

The EBRD experts assume that a ceasefire is brokered within a couple of months in Ukraine. That said, the present forecast is highly uncertain, particularly with a serious risk of its worsening existing if military actions intensify or if gas or other commodities from Russia are restricted, the London-headquartered bank warned.

In its latest outlook released last November the EBRD projected 3% GDP growth in Russia in 2022.

Belarusian economy is expected to contract by 3% in 2022, with zero growth projected for 2023.

GDP contraction in Ukraine may reach 20% this year, according to the research. Meanwhile, the bank expects the country’s economic growth to hit 23% as early as next year if the conflict ends soon and infrastructure starts to be actively recovered.

Describing the effects of the conflict in Ukraine as ‘the greatest supply shock since at least the early 1970s,’ the EBRD predicted that "the increased cost for commodities such as food, oil, gas and metals will have a profound impact on economies, particularly those in lower income countries," as Russia and Ukraine supply a disproportionately high share of commodities, including wheat, corn, fertilizers, titanium, and nickel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on February 24 that in response to a request by the heads of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation in Ukraine, stressing that Moscow had no plans of occupying Ukrainian territories. Western countries responded to the actions of the Russian authorities by slapping sanctions against physical and legal entities.