MOSCOW, February 22. /TASS/. The aggravation of geopolitical tensions associated with Ukraine is contributing to around $15 growth in oil prices. However, if the situation becomes more normalized, growth may be stifled, Head of EMEA Natural Resources & Commodities at Fitch Dmitry Marinchenko told TASS.

"The geopolitical premium in oil prices may now reach around $15 per barrel. If the situation follows the calmest scenario, which implies the absence of further escalation, minimal sanctions that do not affect the oil and gas sector, and freezing of the conflict, this geopolitical premium may be suppressed," he said. The price of Brent oil against the backdrop of news about the escalation of the situation around Ukraine has been growing for several days in a row and on Tuesday exceeded $99 per barrel.

If the situation worsens, enters a more acute phase, which may result in sanctions against Russian oil exports, then oil prices "could potentially significantly exceed $100 per barrel", Marinchenko said. This scenario, according to the expert, "could cause an energy crisis". "Russia's share in the world oil market is more than 10%, there is nothing to replace it, there are little free capacities, especially in view of the gradual recovery in demand - even if sanctions against Iran could be lifted in the near future," he concluded.

Tensions escalated along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 17. The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR, LPR) reported the heaviest shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in months. On February 18, the heads of the LPR and DPR, Leonid Pasechnik and Denis Pushilin, announced the evacuation of the republics’ residents to Russia. General mobilization was ordered in the Donbass republics on February 19.

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees at the ceremony in the Kremlin on recognizing the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Putin met with DPR and LPR leaders, Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, and signed with them the treaties on friendship, cooperation, and mutual aid between Russia and both republics.