YAKUTSK, November 11. /TASS/. A state system for geocryology monitoring, organized in compliance with the president’s order, will favor sustainable life in Russia’s northern regions and will prevent accidents caused by the permafrost thawing, experts told TASS.

Earlier, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ordered the government to make necessary changes to the legislation, related to organization of a state system to monitor the permafrost. Such a system, he said, could be organized at the national hydrometeorology service, Roshydromet. Additionally, the president ordered to plan necessary expenses in the federal budget for 2023 and for the planned period of 2024 and 2025.

"The geocryology monitoring is unavoidable, as the country’s 65% are in the permafrost area," Deputy Director of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute (the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Siberian Branch) Alexander Fyodorov told TASS. "The monitoring will prevent catastrophes. People must know how to live in the permafrost conditions. The monitoring will be made in a few regions, including in the European part. The system will cover vast, medium and small monitoring locations."

According to him, Yakutia only plans to organize nine monitoring locations. "By using the monitoring, we will survey the permafrost’s temperatures and depths, as well as changes in the landscapes, shifts of the natural zones, and also will conduct a geo-technical monitoring of buildings and infrastructures. The system will favor sustainable life and economy in the North," he added.

This extensive and diverse permafrost monitoring system of the kind has not been used earlier, he said. "The warming in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic is three times more intensive than elsewhere in the world," he explained. "This is why I am adamant this monitoring must be implemented as soon as possible."

Damage worth billions

According to the Ministry for Development of the Far East and Arctic, Russia’s damage from the permafrost thawing may reach as much as 9 trillion rubles ($126 billion) in 30 years. If the country fails to get adjusted to the global climate changes, houses in the North will continue to ruin, and wildfires will continue to hit the northern forests.

The new permafrost monitoring system will have a few levels: a federal, a regional and a municipal, as well as the level of companies, developing Arctic deposits. This way, says Director of the Northern Forum’s Secretariat Vladimir Vasilyev, the federal program to set a network of monitoring stations will favor quicker adaptation to the climate changes and to the ruining permafrost thawing.

"The monitoring network must cover various geographic areas, landscapes, including the mountainous ecosystem," he said. "It must include studies of the water regimes, conditions of the permafrost, temperature regimes, horizons and speeds of the perennially frozen soils’ thawing, emissions of hydrocarbon and methane, and their concentrations and amounts."

Specialists must begin modeling and forecasting the events, which will happen in 50-100 years, to make a clear map of comfortable space for people in the Arctic.

Thawing risks

The Melnikov Permafrost Institute says about 40% of Yakutia’s territory face risks from the thawing permafrost, the degradation of which has been growing with the climate changes. In event of ignoring the threat, Yakutia’s permafrost conditions may change dramatically, the institute’s expert Nikita Tananayev said. Earlier in the year, the scientist has conducted studies in Central Yakutia to confirm this idea.

"The base I used was the climate forecast for 2100," he told TASS. "It contains a few scenarios - from optimistic to pessimistic. So, in case nothing changes, and the greenhouse gases emissions are not less, then by 2060 the permafrost’s upper layer will thaw away completely. The upper layer is 10 meters deep. It carries all the infrastructures. And, surely, the thawing will affect the buildings and structures on it."

The permafrost thawing has been among the reasons of the biggest ever ecology accident in Norilsk in 2020. Some scientists say - the warming in the area could have caused soil sliding, which unsealed a tank with diesel fuel. "A tank with fuel in Norilsk collapsed, and we could hear voices: the reason is the thawing permafrost. This is absolutely logical, as recently this has been a widely discussed topic. But look: everybody does speak, but nobody presents proofs in figures. That’s because such figures do not exist at the moment," he said.

President’s opinion

On October 31, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin told the G20 summit the climate in Russia gets warmer quicker than elsewhere. Over recent 10 years, the average temperature has raised by 0.5 degrees. At the same time, he stressed, the warming in the Arctic is even quicker.

The climate changes issues are exclusively important, he said, adding Russia has experienced consequences from the warming. Among such consequences he pointed to the permafrost thawing.