MOSCOW, March 17. /TASS/. The OPEC countries will provide the main growth in world oil production in the next five years, while the United States will make a modest contribution to the increase in output. This is according to the oil market outlook to 2026 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), obtained by TASS.

The slowdown in US production opens the way for OPEC+ countries to replenish most of the oil supply, according to the IEA. Oil production by OPEC+ countries in the period from 2020 to 2026 will increase by 6 mln bpd to 54 mln bpd, while non-OPEC+ countries will build up production by 4 mln bpd, up to 50 mln bpd.

"Producers from the Middle East are expected to provide half of the increase, largely from existing shut-in capacity. If Iran remains under sanctions, keeping the world oil market in balance may require Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait - with their surplus capacity - to pump at or near record highs," the agency says.

At the same time, free effective oil production capacities in the world may be reduced by 2026 to a minimum in five years due to a drop in investment, the agency predicts. Investments in exploration and production in 2020 fell by 30% worldwide. All new projects commissioned in 2020 will provide no more than 1 mln bpd of production growth by 2026.

Forecast for 2021

The IEA expects that in 2021 oil supplies from non-OPEC countries will increase by 0.7 mln barrels per day. In 2020, the decline was 1.3 mln bpd, according to the agency's monthly report, which was also released on Wednesday.

According to the report, the supply from oil producers who have not joined the OPEC+ deal may increase by 700,000 bpd in 2021 after a decrease of 1.3 mln bpd in 2020.

At the same time, oil production in the United States will continue to fall this year, the IEA says attributing this to the cold weather in February. The agency expects the decline in oil production in the US to be 180,000 bpd in 2021.