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Weak demand and external instability create risks for Russian economy growth, experts say

In August, the Russian economy retained earlier trends - stagnation of consumer spending and construction amid growing industrial production, according to the experts

© Sergei Fadeichev/TASS

MOSCOW, September 27. /TASS/. Instability of the global economy and weak domestic demand pose risks to the growth of the Russian economy in 2019-2020, according to the report prepared by experts at the Higher School of Economics.

"The immediate prospects for economic growth in the face of weak domestic demand and an unstable situation in the global economy are becoming increasingly vague," the report said.

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Even oil price of $40 per barrel unlikely to seriously affect Russian economy — minister

According to experts, in August, the Russian economy retained earlier trends - stagnation of consumer spending and construction amid growing industrial production. At the same time, in the coming months, the annual growth rate of the index of basic industries will increase due to the low base effect of the fourth quarter of last year and will reach 1.4%. This will be facilitated by the ongoing easing of monetary policy and a possible growth in budget spending on national projects.

"Closer the end of the year, funding for national projects is expected to increase, and the Central Bank once again lowered its key rate in September to 7% and is likely to make it even lower. We can also expect a formal improvement of the index of economic activity due to its current growth since the beginning year and the low base effect of the Q4 2018," experts explained.

According to the report, if Russia’s target GDP growth of 1.3% in 2019 is achievable, then slowdown of global economic growth and instability of the external background will create risks for the subsequent growth of the Russian economy in 2020.

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