MOSCOW, May 31. /TASS/. Turkey’s leadership is capable of suspending the country’s membership in NATO or take other demonstrative steps with regards to the military bloc if EU countries step up pressure on Ankara. This opinion was expressed to TASS on Tuesday by Ivan Safranchuk, Senior Research Fellow at Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

"I think that discord between Turkey and NATO will grow," he said. "If everything heads towards sabotage organized against Turkey in Europe, like in a hazing ritual, especially on the eve of Turkey’s presidential election in 2023, then I think Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in order to rally his voters around the subject of national pride, may undertake some demonstrative steps," the expert argued. He specified that this is most likely not about leaving NATO but, rather, about suspending Turkey’s membership, not attending summits nor participating in the US-led military bloc’s operations.

The analyst noted that nowadays European politicians from time to time mention the necessity to curtail Turkey’s rights. "However, so far such opinions are not systemic and organized," he noted. "If all of this morphs into a pressure campaign, then Turkey may display its national pride," the expert explained. In relation to this, he reiterated remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron who asked his Turkish counterpart to respect Finland’s and Sweden’s desire to join NATO. The expert is confident that such statements will be expressed more often. "And if Turkey is seriously restricted in its right to bargain at the right moment, when this opportunity emerges, Erdogan may take some resolute steps," he concluded.

Turkey's demands

Commenting on the situation with Finland’s and Sweden’s prospective NATO membership, the analyst noted that Turkey would continue to insist on its conditions which would make it difficult for the parties to reach an agreement. This concerns Ankara’s demand that these countries give up supporting the Kurdish opposition as a condition for Turkey giving them the green light to join the alliance. "It is quite possible that the US and EU countries are asking Finland and Sweden to give into Erdogan, but not too much," the expert thinks. According to him, "If [they] give in completely, then Turkey will have even bigger ambitions, including the lifting of US sanctions introduced after Ankara had purchased Russia’s S-400 air defense systems."

That said, according to the expert, Erdogan is wary about retaliatory measures against himself if agreements on NATO’s expansion are reached. "The soonest excuse to spite him is the next year’s election which will be anything but simple," the analyst said. "So, for him the deal should ideally include the issue of the election," he added.

Erdogan said on May 18 that Ankara would refuse to support Sweden and Finland joining NATO if they remain on the fence regarding these terrorist organizations, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which Turkey regards as such. He made a similar statement on May 16, adding that he was against admitting Finland and Sweden to NATO due to these countries’ refusal to extradite accomplices to PKK’s activity to Turkey. However, on May 21, Erdogan specified that Turkey would support the accession of Sweden and Finland if Stockholm and Helsinki clearly display their solidarity with Ankara over its concerns in the security sphere.