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Analysts predict new US president Donald Trump may propose new world agenda

November 09, 2016, 17:35 UTC+3 MOSCOW

His rival from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, remained a long way behind

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© AP Photo/ Evan Vucci

MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. US President-elect Donald Trump, with reliance on the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives will enjoy vast opportunities for shaping his country’s foreign policy, including relations with Russia, polled analysts have told TASS. A great deal will depend on who will take the key positions in the Administration of the 45th US president.

In Tuesday’s elections Republican candidate Donald Trump clinched his presidential victory by securing more than the needed 270 electoral votes.

His rival from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, remained a long way behind.

What predetermined Trump’s success

The science doyen of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of US and Canada studies, Sergey Rogov, believes that "the middle class rose in revolt" to railroad Trump to victory.

"The United States still feels the effects of the great recession of the 2008-2009. Economic growth ranges one to two percent. In fact, the US economy is stalled. The social well-being of the middle class has slumped. The white middle class has risen in revolt, playing into Trump’s hands. He managed to sense the electorate’s sentiment," Rogov believes.

"Trump managed to get away even with politically incorrect remarks about Muslims, migrants and women. His supporters saw him as a 'regular guy' who never misses a chance to speak his mind. This image merely contributed to his popularity, although in terms of organization, financial resources and media support Clinton had an advantage," Rogov said.

Professor Andranik Migranian, of the Moscow state institute of international relations MGIMO, who for a number of years led the New York office of the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, too, believes that Trump owes his victory to the mobilization of the white working class electorate, which in 20 years to come may find itself in the position of a minority in the US.

New opportunities

"Contrary to general expectations the Democrats suffered a defeat not only in the struggle for the presidential seat, but also the congressional elections. For the first time in many years the United States will have a single-party bloc in power. The Republicans will control both the executive, legislative and judicial branches of power," Rogov said. In fact, "this will give Trump wide opportunities for shaping his foreign policy, including the relations with Russia."

Rogov recalled Trump’s rather harsh statements about NATO, Japan, and South Korea, which, he said, all should fund their own defense spending. "A very nervous reaction followed from the United States’ West European allies," he added.

"As far as Russia is concerned, Trump is known to have dropped some positive remarks. He promised to meet with the Russian president and to discuss cooperation matters with him. True, such statements made in public raised no extra votes for Trump. Moreover, several neo-conservatives have quit the Republican Party in a gesture of protest. If Trump has an opportunity to mend relations with Moscow and stem the further growth of tensions will depend on who will take the key posts in his Administration," Rogov said.

"The Republican’s victory has stunned the world," says the deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s international affairs committee, Andrey Klimov. "How many military contracts are at stake and how many lobbyists will be trying to influence the president is anyone’s guess. In all likelihood the United States’ West European allies and the leading Republicans in the US Congress will be trying not so much to cater to Trump’s ideas as to reformat him," he added.

"Barack Obama has brought the world pretty close to another Cold War. If Trump really acts on his election pledges, there will emerge an opportunity to backtrack from the red line. Washington and Moscow will then be able to restore to the agenda of bilateral relations such issues as international terrorism, environmental protection, and migration processes, which are equally sensitive for the United States and Russia, because both countries accommodate the greatest number of migrants in the world," Klimov said.

Migranian recalls that in contrast to Clinton Trump from the outset put forward the idea of cooperation with Russia and not of confrontation with it. "Trump promised that he might consider Crimea’s recognition as part of Russia. He appears to have reacted with understanding to Russia’s interests in Ukraine and he voiced certain skepticism regarding NATO. It remains to be seen how successful he will be in persuading the Republicans in the US Congress to establish partnership with Russia," Migranian said.

Clinton’s presidential ambitions fall flat

About the outcome of the US presidential election Rogov said that it was the dirtiest political campaign in the history of the United States ever. "What made this campaign so unique is that it highlighted a deep crisis of the US political system. Had the Democratic Party come up with a different candidate, Trump would have lost. So it remains to be seen whether the US political system will adjust itself to the new realities or get out of control," Rogov believes.

"As for Hillary Clinton, her presidential ambitions have ended in utter failure. Over the pasts three decades the United States has got pretty bored with the rule of two political clans - the Bushes and the Clintons. This page has now been turned," Rogov concluded.

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