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Experts say Ukraine’s new coalition unlikely to live longer than spring 2017

April 11, 2016, 19:34 UTC+3 KIEV

Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Sunday he is stepping down as Ukraine’s prime minister

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©  Zurab Javakhadze/TASS Archive

KIEV, April 11. /TASS/. A new coalition in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, which is being forged to form a new government, is unlikely to last longer than the spring of 2017 as it is bound to be under permanent pressure from both inside and outside, according to Ukrainian political analysts who took part in a news conference on Monday.

"This coalition is unlikely to be a long-liver," Vitaly Bala, the director of the Situation Modelling Agency, said. In his words, once a new parliamentary majority is formed, the political crisis in the country will be "paused" and a number of parties will obviously use this pause to seek early elections to the Rada before next spring.

According to Bala, the factions of Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), Samopomich (Self-assistance) and Oleh Lyashko’s Radical Parties, which have refused to join the new coalition, already now can boast bigger support in society that the pro-presidential Petro Poroshenko Bloc and Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front. "These forces will be taking efforts to loosen the coalition," he said, adding that the Opposition Bloc, with its growing ratings, will also invigorate its efforts towards early parliamentary elections.

The expert said he doesn’t rule out that in a span of three to four months on the background of poor economic situation Yatsenyuk and his People’s Front will quit the coalition too putting all the blame on the new government of Vladimir Groisman (now the parliament speaker). "In the long run, if no economic miracle happens, the situation in Ukraine will deteriorate to a degree when elections will be the best option for the current authorities," Bala said.

Another expert, Denis Kiryukhin of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies, noted that the principles of forming the parliamentary coalition in a format of two factions (Petro Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front) are flawed. "Yatsenyuk’s political force claims to have about a half of seats despite the fact that now it is actually a bankrupt and its public support is going dramatically down," he said. In his words, political risks for President Poroshenko will go up as he will no longer have "a lightning rod in the person of Yatsenyuk."

According to Kiryukhin, another factor of strong pressure on the coalition is forthcoming privatization of state assets that will inevitably trigger conflicts between domestic and foreign big businesses vying for enterprises on sale.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Sunday he is stepping down as Ukraine’s prime minister. In his words, the political crisis in Ukraine has been deliberately instigated. "The desire to change one man has stricken politicians blind" and "the process of the government overhaul has turned into an unreflecting running in place," he said explaining his motives. Resignation papers were referred to the Verkhovna Rada.

Following Yatsenyuk’s statement, President Petro Poroshenko said he is ready for any prime minister but would prefer to see Vladimir Groisman, the current speaker of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) in the premier’s office, who will need to receive at least 226 votes in the parliament to be approved as prime minister.

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