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Experts say most realistic scenario of Ukraine settlement to take up to five years

December 24, 2015, 17:41 UTC+3 MOSCOW
Under the "realistic scenario" experts say they are looking to "freezing of the process and its transition into the mode of middle-term settlement (3-5 years)"
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© Mikhail Sokolov/TASS

MOSCOW, December 24. /TASS/. The most realistic scenario for a settlement of the Ukraine conflict can take from three to five years, says a report of the Centre for Current Politics presented at a roundtable on the Minsk peace agreements at TASS news agency on Thursday.

Under the "realistic scenario" experts say they are looking to "freezing of the process and its transition into the mode of middle-term settlement (3-5 years)".

They believe this is the most probable, adding that "all participants in the settlement process are gradually tending to think so as this scenario is the least cost-intensive alternative (in terms of political tools)".

"In all probability, new signals towards the implementation of this scenario will start coming shortly," the experts report. "Even admitting the possibility of a new diplomatic ‘changeover’ within the framework of the Contact Group, it is hardly likely that a new impetus will be given to the negotiation process," they say.

"In this scenario, optimism is growing over the holding of elections of the Ukrainian president and the parliament (possibly early elections), whose renewed mandate may allow a more constructive approach to the passing of necessary amendments to the legislation."

The report's authors see an optimistic scenario envisaging successful reintegration of eastern region Donbas into Ukraine within the framework of the Minsk agreements before the end of 2016 as most unlikely. "Freezing of the situation for years if not for ever" is a pessimistic scenario, the experts judge.

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