The study, unveiled for the participants of the opening Russian-European economic forum in Milan on Thursday, reflects the influence of tensions in the international relations on the Italian exports.
“The sanctions impact and respectively, the lack of growth increases the loss on exports to Russia in the amount estimated at around €3.7 billion over two years (2014-2015) with exports to Russia forecast to fall 17% in 2014 and 21% in 2015, what accounts for 0.5% of Italy’s total annual exports,” the document says.
The Italian experts estimate that the country’s exports to Russia in the first six months of 2014, fell 8.9%, year-on-year. The analysis also takes into account the effect of Moscow’s embargo on agricultural goods (worth €161 million llast year).
“Judging from the cost of the exported goods in 2013, which were embargoed by Russia, and suggesting that these sanctions will continue until natural expiry, we believe that the loss over two years (2014-2015) could reach €188 million,” the study says.
The damage from only the lack of exports growth from Italy to Russia, if taking into account the growth rates over two years prior to the crisis, will reach around €1.7 billion in 2014-2015, the experts say, adding that this is explained that the growth is not observed amid the uncertainty.
The Milan forum focuses on investment in Russia in modern geopolitical conditions and IPO on the Russian market, as well as prospects of developing Russian-European relations amid new economic and political environment.