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MOSCOW, April 09. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine’s disintegration is more than likely now because it’s “a country with no majority”, Oleg Nemensky, an expert with the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, said.
“The country is literally divided into two parts and it’s hard to imagine how it can be governed either under democracy or dictatorship without a majority because no dictatorship is possible in a state that is split into two parts,” he told the ITAR-TASS Political Analysis Centre on Wednesday, April 9.
“It can only exist in a state of geopolitical uncertainty with different geopolitical centres claiming a role in Ukraine. We have seen this over the past 20 post-Soviet years but this is no longer possible because the West has changed its position. The West has basically left Ukraine no chance to pursue a multi-vector policy and is purposefully dividing the country,” the expert said.
“But it would be inappropriate to draw any parallels with the divisions of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth because those divisions had been agreed to by both the dividers and the Polish Sejm. Moreover, they were practically bloodless except for uprisings. However Ukraine is literally on the verge of civil war. It’s hard to imagine that the authorities in Kiev, any authorities, would agree to a division scenario. And yet the risk of disintegration is very high: this can happen through internal civil confrontation or even civil war, the first signs of which we can already see in Ukraine,” Nemensky said.
He believes that “a civil war in Ukraine will not benefit either Russia or the EU but will suit the United States. It is the United States that derailed the February 21 agreements between (Ukrainian President Viktor) Yanukovych and members of the opposition; and it is the United States that has priority influence on the present authorities in Kiev,” he said.