BRUSSELS, March 26. /TASS/. Russia has the opportunity to advance on the battlefield until the end of summer due to the inability of the Ukrainian armed forces to mount successful defense operations amid ammunition and personnel shortages, Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka told Politico.
According to his estimates, the Kiev regime’s severe manpower and ordnance shortages open a window of opportunity for Moscow in the special military operation zone. The expert thinks that without sufficient personnel, the Ukrainian army will have to spend its remaining resources at a higher rate, "leading to much faster Russian gains in the long term." Muzyka pointed out that work on legislation toughening mobilization rules in Kiev is progressing slowly "which further harms [Ukraine’s] ability to defend itself over the following months." According to the expert, even if Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signs the law by mid-April, draftees would only begin arriving at the frontline by late summer-early autumn.
In December 2023, Zelensky said that the military command had submitted a request to call up another 500,000 people. Following this, the government began working on a draft bill to institute new, more draconian mobilization rules. The first version of the document was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada on December 25, 2023 but was sent back for revision.
On February 7, the Verkhovna Rada passed in the first reading a bill that toughens mobilization rules. In particular, the bill envisages abridging the rights of draft dodgers in court procedures, introducing electronic draft orders, and authorizing the police to detain violators and hand them over to military recruitment offices. The harsh tactics in the new document were met with criticism from the public, leading lawmakers to submit over 4,000 amendments to the bill.