BRUSSELS, November 25. /TASS/. The heads of 27 EU member states will gather in Brussels on Sunday to vote on the 585-page draft Brexit deal and other documents necessary for the UK withdrawal from the union.
Another document up for approval is a political declaration that specifies future relations between Brussels and London. De-facto, it sets goals for the next stage of negotiations that would begin after the United Kingdom quits the European Union on the night of March 29. This transitional period is expected to last until January 1, 2021.
The summit will begin with a meeting of state leaders from the 27 EU members and senior EU officials without the United Kingdom. The participants are to approve draft documents on Brexit. After that, a short meeting will be held with UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who will be informed about the outcome of the discussion.
However, the fate of the Brexit deal will remain uncertain even if the summit resolves to support it. It is yet to gain the approval of the European Parliament, EU national legislatures and the parliament of the United Kingdom. The last objective seems particularly difficult to achieve, because many parliament members criticized the deal for being unfavorable and even inadmissible for their country. The rejection of the agreement may entail unpredictable consequences that range from the resignation of May’s government up to UK withdrawal from EU without any deal at all.
The upcoming talks in Brussels are expected to be over by noon Sunday (14:00 Moscow time). They were almost thwarted on Saturday as Spain put forward its own demands regarding Gibraltar at the very last moment.
Disagreements over Gibraltar
Madrid has threatened to veto the deal because its opinion on Gibraltar, overseas territory of the United Kingdom, disputed by Spain, was ignored. This longstanding problem in the UK-Spanish relations was mitigated in past years as both nations were members of the European Union. However, if the United Kingdom, together with all of its territories, leaves the EU, residents of those territories may lose access to European markets and, probably, the possibility of free movement within the EU.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Friday that he might skip the EU summit if his country’s demands and objections were ignored. However, after rounds of consultations on various levels, he announced on Saturday that his country would withdraw its veto from the Brexit deal after reaching an agreement on the issue of Gibraltar.
"Europe and the United Kingdom have agreed to the requirements set by Spain, therefore, as a result, Spain will lift the veto and vote tomorrow (on Sunday, at an emergency EU summit - TASS) for the [agreement on] Brexit," he said, describing Gibraltar as "a key issue for Spain."
Sanchez is expected to hold a separate meeting with May during the summit.
Brexit deal
On November 15, Brussels and London announced that after more than 18 months of discussions, they finally agreed on a 585-page draft agreement on Brexit, stipulating the terms of United Kingdom’s withdrawal.
However, the main issue - the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland (a part of the United Kingdom) - remained unsolved. Negotiators have simply delayed the problem, making instead a written pledge to find a solution until July 1, 2020.
As long as the format of future relations between the UK and the EU remains undefined, the sides would have a single customs space that includes Northern Ireland, too.
According to the document, during the entire transition period after Brexit, which would last through 2020 and may be extended once, the United Kingdom will in fact retain all of its commitments as the EU member (including making contributions to the EU budget and complying with all regulations of the European market). At the same time, London will be excluded from the European decision-making process during that period.
Declaration about future relations
European Parliament head Donald Tusk said on November 22 that the negotiators agreed on the political declaration - a document that would define future relations between London and Brussels. He said he had sent the declarations to 27 EU leaders, who are to approve it on Sunday.
Unlike the Brexit deal, whose future is still uncertain, the declaration is likely to be adopted, because it of its vague contents. Almost entirely, the declaration consists of the sides’ commitments to engage in talks about signing numerous agreements on cooperation in various spheres.
To this end, the EU and the UK will set up "a Joint Committee responsible for managing and supervising the implementation and operation of the future relationship, facilitating the resolution of disputes as set out below, and making recommendations concerning its evolution," the document says.
"The Joint Committee should comprise the Parties' representatives at an appropriate level, establish its own rules of procedures, reach decisions by mutual consent, and meet as often as required to fulfill its tasks. As necessary, it could establish specialized sub-committees to assist it in the performance of its tasks," it says.
Besides, the parties will "convene a high level conference at least every six months from the date of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the Union to take stock of progress and agree, as far as is possible between them, actions to move forward."
The document says that Brussels and London are to engage in talks on "agreements needed to give the future relationship legal form."
"Immediately following the United Kingdom’s withdrawal, and based on their preparatory work, the Parties will agree a programme including: a) the structure and format of the negotiation rounds, including with respect to parallel tracks; and b) a formal schedule of negotiating rounds," it says.
British dilemma
In the United Kingdom, the draft deal on Brexit split not only the society, but the ruling Conservative Party as well. In one year, nearly two dozens of ministers and deputy ministers left May’s cabinet. The latest four resignations took place on the day after the government approved the Brexit deal.
Opponents accuse the draft agreement of going against the results of the 2016 referendum.
Those developments prompted a group of Conservative Party members, who disagree with May’s stance on Brexit, to launch a campaign to remove her from power.
Protesting against the conditions specified in the Brexit deal, several Tory backbenchers expressed their no-confidence in letters to the parliament’s Committee 1922, which has the authority to launch the formal procedure of challenging May and her government over the loss of confidence.
If the leadership challenge procedure is launched, May would require a simple majority in her favor to retain the post. After that, she would be immune from such procedures for at least one year. Therefore, her opponents may prefer to save the option of no-confidence vote for the moment when the public’s approval for the prime minister plunges further down.