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Energy panel

June 03, 1:53 UTC+3

In partnership with Rosneft

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KEY CONCLUSIONS:

  • Global oil output is growing: oil prices to stay low for long

“Shale oil producers in the US have become large exporters selling over 1.3 million barrels per day. May data shows that the US production peaked in the past 21 months reaching over 9.3 million barrels per day. The export of US crude oil also grew significantly. <…> According to some experts, in May, the total OPEC production exceeded by 450,000 barrels the volume capped in the November Agreement,” said Igor Sechin, Chief Executive Officer, Rosneft.

“Over the past year, oil prices ranged from USD 45 to USD 50 per barrel. Brent exceeded this range for a while. But market uncertainty gained hold, and analysts are now considering scenarios with USD 50, USD 40 and even USD 30 per barrel,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Demand for energy is also growing

“For the first time since 2010, economic activity has started to improve in both developed and developing countries. A growing economy drives a strong demand for energy in various forms, which must be accommodated at acceptable, competitive prices and in compliance with safety and environmental requirements,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Russian oil production unaffected by price fluctuations

“A high-quality resource base is the cornerstone of the Russian oil industry enabling us to operate efficiently amid low crude oil prices. We appear to be influenced more by the fiscal policy rather than global price fluctuations,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Exaggerated role of energy efficiency

“Some experts and regulators have expressed exaggerated expectations in terms of improving energy efficiency. Indeed, these processes are under way, however, at a pace that has not been accelerating recently. In 2016, the total decline in global energy intensity of the world economy was slightly above 1%,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Saudi Aramco’s IPO as a landmark event in the global energy sector

“Based on our experience, having strategic and financial investors as shareholders increases the company’s value and provides a strong impetus to seek more ways to improve performance. This move will enable Saudi Aramco to not only do business as part of government agreements, but also benefit from corporate relations, which will give them more flexibility, speed up decision-making, facilitate commercial partnerships,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Lower production costs

“We see the cost structure continuing to decline. <...> The cost has declined so far by close to 25%–35%  (from the 2014 base). We think that from the same base, another 25% will go with the 50% reduction in the cost structure,” said Edward Morse, Global Head of Commodities Research, Citigroup.

CHALLENGES:

  • Low oil prices to hit 50% of global production

“Oil prices balancing on USD 40 per barrel for quite a long time will render almost half of production loss-making. First of all, deepwater projects in Brazil, oil sands in Canada. And it will cause problems to shale producers (other than highly-efficient projects in the Permian Basin),” said Igor Sechin.

  • Stronger competition for consumers

“Overall, we are at a stage where consumers play a more important role than producers. And the competition for consumers will be quite intense,” added Igor Sechin.

  • Need for large investments

“Oil exploration and development remains highly capital intensive, and we expect USD 2–3 trillion to be invested over the next 10 years,” said Ivan Glasenberg, CEO, Glencore International AG.

SOLUTIONS:

  • Tax benefits

“I believe that going forward, our stability will remain intact, especially given the additional tax benefits proposed by the Russian government. Needless to say, we are committed to fulfilling our supply obligations, both in Russia and internationally,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Diversification into the Asia-Pacific markets

“The Asia-Pacific markets are of great strategic importance to us. <…> In the past, we were more focused on the European market. <…> Now, to mitigate market volatility, we need to look for buyers elsewhere. We have been quick to build the infrastructure to serve the Asian-Pacific markets, including the Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean trunk pipeline. Our sales to China have gone up (last year, Russia was China’s largest supplier delivering some 52 million tonnes and leaving behind our partners from Saudi Arabia). Our sales to Japan, South Korea and other buyers in the region are on the upswing. That is why we do a lot of work in India,” said Igor Sechin.

  • Cutting-edge technology

“We see an evolution towards equipment, technology and services coming together to be able to provide the operators with even more efficiency. That involves not just the aspect of data. <…> We are already starting to see some of that inflation re-occur in the industry, so technology breakthroughs are going to be what is necessary, and those are what we are focused on at the moment,” said Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO of GE Oil & Gas.

“We estimate that break-even has gone from USD 70–75 to USD 40 stemming from the simplification of technology, leveraging innovations, as was talked about, Big Data, digital,” said McKinsey representative.

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