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Russian political analyst sees status quo as most likely scenario for Donbass

July 26, 20:24 UTC+3 MOSCOW

A Russian political analyst comments on the Donbass crisis

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MOSCOW, July 26. /TASS/. Maintaining a status quo seems to be the most likely scenario in the development of a conflict in Ukraine’s embattled Donbass, Russian political analyst Denis Denisov told a round table on the situation in the east of Ukraine on Wednesday.

"I see four possible scenarios for the progression of events. The first one is maintaining a status quo," he said. "This is the most likely scenario if we see no tough, articulated foreign influence on Ukraine, on territories of the Donbass republic," he went on.

He said stability is currently seen in Ukraine’s domestic policy. "I don’t see any internal factors that can fundamentally change the situation at the moment," he said, adding that the same situation is seen in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics.

Denisov sees Ukraine’s attempt to withdraw from the Minsk agreements, which the political elite in Kiev see unacceptable as they are now, as a possible second scenario. "But traditionally for itself, the Ukrainian side is trying to withdraw from Minsk (agreements) through provocations targeting the Donbass republics," he continued.

"If they succeed in this, then several options are possible, up to restart of a high-intensity conflict and interference of outside players in the conflict," he said.

Withdrawal from the Minsk agreements of the self-proclaimed republics is a third, though less likely scenario, according to Denisov. "However, no current conditions signal that this could be a real option. If the situation changes (on the line of contact - TASS), then this is possible, but if the conflict continues at the pace we are seeing now, than this looks impossible," he added.

"Meanwhile, a complete implementation of the Minsk agreements under the present regime in Kiev looks unreal," he said. "This can work out only in case the political regime changes in Kiev - though a coup, through outside influence of our western partners," Denisov summed up.

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