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Experts discuss scenarios for Ukraine

January 27, 2014, 11:51 UTC+3

Of late, big business made it clear it was against the use of force scenario

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MOSCOW, January 27. /ITAR-TASS World Service/. Ukraine’s events remain a dominant feature in today’s Russian newspapers. Over the weekend, Ukrainian opposition’s supporters seized buildings of ten regional administrations and sought resignation of two governors. President Viktor Yanukovich invited the opposition leaders to head the government and expressed readiness to make some other concessions. However, the talks among the president and three opposition leaders — Arseny Yatsenyuk, a former economy minister, Vitaly Klitschko, boxer-turned politician, and Oleg Taygnibok, far-right nationalist — yielded no results.

Experts discuss different scenarios for Ukraine and make suppositions whether it is a revolution.

“Leaders of the opposition may correct the course, but protesters express so severe attitude towards the authorities that any softening of demands or the use of force scenario will cause nationwide riots,” the Vedomosti business daily cited Yuri Odarchenko, a parliamentarian from the Fatherland (Batkivshchina) party of jailed ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, as saying.

Of late, big business made it clear it was against the use of force scenario. For this it was necessary to impose a state of emergency, but parliamentarians controlled by business would not support this initiative, political scientist Vadim Karasev was quoted by the daily as saying. A compromise on the president’s terms would not be reached. The opposition made it clear it would insist on the fulfillment of its demands, but the authorities would not agree on the early election. At the same time a lingering chaos proved disadvantageous both for business, the opposition and the president, the expert said.

All four scenarios — the use of force, a compromise by the Yanukovich model, a compromise by the opposition model or further chaos — are of short-term nature and none of them guarantees stability, the newspaper reported. “In any case, high risks for escalation of the political conflict, economic collapse and Ukraine’s breakup remain,” Alexei Chesnakov, director of the Centre for Current Politics, said. It was evident that a third force was on demand, he said, adding that in principle, Russia and Germany could act as external guarantors of an agreement, but in the moment this was simply a theoretical supposition.

“Ukraine is witnessing a classical revolution as those held in the 19th and early 20th centuries, it is definitely what revolutionist leader Lenin calls “it is only when the “lower classes” do not want to live in the old way and the “upper classes” cannot carry on in the old way,” said political analyst Leonid Radzikhovsky. The current events differ from the 2004-2005 Orange Revolution, he said, adding that it most probably could be called a half-revolution, a coup, as all demands were reduced to protection of legitimacy and the rule of law.

It was early to speak of a revolution in Ukraine, said another political scientist Andrei Yermolayev, who on Saturday was sacked by Yanukovich from the position of director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies. “Those who have gathered on Independence Square do not plan to change their country’s structure, economic or political regime. In fact, we speak of civil protests with the real threat of turning into civil riots,” he said.

Viktor Yanukovich’s position noticeably changed against the backdrop of recent events, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. Experts believed top government adviser on security Andrei Klyuyev, who was appointed as presidential chief of staff on Friday, influenced the head of state. He is considered one of a few Ukrainian politicians, who can make fast and reasonable decisions, can maintain ties and conduct dialogue with representatives of different political forces inside the country and beyond its borders. Klyuyev is assigned proposals put forward by Yanukovich to opposition leaders on Saturday evening.

Ukrainian politicians in their cozy offices may agree on what they want, but the street lives its own life, Moskovsky Komsomolets writes, adding that Yanukovich has come to agreement with opposition leaders, but not with street radicals.

“In their fight against political opponents Ukrainian politicians Klitschko and Yatsenyuk called demons, ultra-right nationalists and successors of ideas of Stepan Bandera (a wartime leader of Ukrainian nationalist forces) for help,” the newspaper wrote. “They hoped that revived dead people, spirits of those who in Ukraine’s northwestern Volyn region cut open Polish children’s stomachs would get out of their frozen ghostly graves and would take them to the heights of power and would take Ukraine to a bright European future. They are taking it, but only where?” the daily continued.

“A real coup attempt not covered by a fig leaf of “velvet revolution” is evident. How does this “non-violent revolution” differ from the blood October Revolution of 1917?” the newspaper asked.


Itar-Tass is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews.

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