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The Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces gathered in Istanbul to form an interim government, which should become an alternative to Bashar Assad’s rule. The observers noted that the rebels will refuse to obey to a new body of power, moreover, the radical Islamists play a growing role on the battlefield, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily reported.
The opposition Cabinet hopes to control the territories captured by the rebels and receive the financial aid from abroad to restore the administrative governing system in the regions, where the anarchy is reigning. But first of all the Syrian national opposition coalition hopes that the newly elected governing body will be recognized by other countries as the only legitimate representative of the Syrian people and this fact will permit to buy the weapons and use the frozen accounts of the Damascus official authorities.
The current situation repeats the Libyan variant of development of the events, scientific expert from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Georgy Mirsky said. At first a government will be formed, then a no-fly zone on the border with Turkey will be created. The Free Syrian Army will be concentrated in this no-fly zone and will receive the weapons and support from the West. “Expecting that the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi is looming for him, Assad dispatched his tanks there that in any case will result in further escalation of the armed conflict. Assad will go to the very end, realizing that he has nothing to lose. Or some people in Assad’s surroundings will be found to topple him. If Assad stays in power for one or two years he will finally lose after all,” the expert gave his forecast.
According to the Syrian opposition scenario, the interim government will pay the money to the militants of the Free Syrian Army that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are doing and will provide them with weapons, thus uniting scattered field groups under their command. However, the observers claimed that most rebels refuse to recognize the power of opposition figures, moreover, many of them resettled in other countries.
“The question, who will win at the elections of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, is not essential,” Mirsky believes. “Even if this is people interested in the dialogue, all the same those, who are fighting, shedding the blood and will determine an outcome of the war, they will not obey to the government, which consists of certain masters, who are sitting in the five-star hotels in Paris, Zurich or Cairo,” he said.
It is even more doubtful that the alternative Syrian government will manage to suppress the extremists, gaining the weight, as the latter will also create their own political structures. In the view of Mirsky, the longer the war lasts, the larger role people connected with Al Qaeda are playing in the opposition. There were none of them just 18 months ago. They appeared a year ago, but their number was insignificant. “At the present moment the Free Syrian Army has already withdrawn to the background, as well as the Syrian national opposition coalition headed by al-Hatyb. The problem should be settled not in Istanbul. The question should be settled in Damascus and Aleppo, where the battles are going on. The ultra-Islamists have already come to the forefront confidently for the past year. They are turning the current war in a religious war, are mobilizing the Sunni Muslims under the banner of the struggle to eliminate the Alawite dominance. A person has recently been beaten with a whip, he was slashed by the whip 20 times, because he opposed the creation of a khalifat. This outrage shows that such people may come to power. The longer the conflicts last, the more chances they have,” the expert said in conclusion.