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The Globalisation Problems Institute of Mikhail Delyagin has prepared a political outlook for Russia in 2013, the Izvestia daily writes. In the report “2013: Ousting the Liberal Clan,” the experts make the conclusion that the current government of Dmitry Medvedev will work for only a few months more. However, many experts do not agree that the resignation will happen so soon.
“The aggravation of the inter-clan war, legalised in the society as the fight against corruption, has acquired a nature, scale and unpredictability that are dangerous for the ruling class as a whole,” the report says.
After the New Year holidays, the conflict between the clans will be slowly fading away, the report authors suppose. But the current prime minister’s entourage will emerge from it weakened, which will “deprive Medvedev and the liberal clan of self-defence capabilities, which with high probability will lead to the resignation of the government in March or April.”
An additional factor accelerating Medvedev’s resignation, experts believe, is the scandal surrounding former Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik, because she supposedly is close to the current prime minister and “it is her story that has the greatest judicial and political perspective.”
The document says that among the politicians who are “on the surface” at present Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin looks like the most appropriate candidate for prime minister, although the situation may change more than once, Delyagin believes.
The head of the Effective Politics Foundation, Gleb Pavlovsky, who earlier was the RF presidential administration’s adviser, is certain that the resignation will really take place.
“Most likely, it will be so. The Kremlin does not hide that it would like this to happen. The matter is to choose a suitable situation and also what Vladimir Putin can offer Medvedev in return,” the Izvestia daily quotes him as saying.
The head of the Contemporary Development Institute, Igor Yurgens, does not preclude the prime minister’s resignation, but he does not agree with Delyagin’s conclusions about the Cabinet’s resignation timeframe.
“I do not foresee such an early resignation. Only very serious events can make the president dismiss and replace the government. I think he will reserve this last resort measure for something more substantial,” Yurgens said.
The expert believes that Russia’s financial reserves are so far large enough, and oil is trading in at 100–110 US dollars per barrel. According to him, this is a strong argument for the settlement of part of the country’s problems by less radical means.
The RF prime minister’s press secretary Natalya Timakova told the Izvestia newspaper that “the dead prophetess Vanga is better at predicting the government’s resignation rather than experts.”
Director General of the Centre for Political Information Alexei Mukhin said for his part that the conclusions about the resignation of the entire Cabinet are unconvincing.
“Based on the personnel logic of President Putin we can assume that only an extraordinary event can trigger the resignation of the Cabinet. Rather, it will not be in spring,” he said.
The political scientist also noted that the expert community has developed a negative attitude trend to Dmitry Medvedev and his team. “But that does not mean that the government will soon step down.”
He suggests that the prime minister has a special arrangement with the president.
“Dmitry Medvedev will not step down, some members of the government may be rotated, but it will not the whole government replacement. Such decisions require a number of prerequisites and system errors: failure to perform duties by the ministers, a serious flaw in the social sector, healthcare system. And as long as there are no such errors, it is strange to predict the resignation,” Mukhin said.
The Izvestia daily recalls that the attempts to oust Dmitry Medvedev have been made since his endorsement by the State Duma as prime minister in May 2012. Then many experts were convinced that the prime minister would not last at least six months.
The next wave against the RF government head has risen this summer, when the prime minister’s resignation was predicted for autumn. Finally, the third wave began in late November.