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Experts presented three scenarios for the change of power in Russia

October 24, 2012, 12:30 UTC+3
The most realistic scenario is a massive civil disobedience provoked by something, and its consequences are unpredictable
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The decline in the protesting activities is a temporary factor, as the growth in the mistrust to the state authorities is obvious in all layers of the Russian society, a large-scale socio-psychological survey, which the Centre of Strategic Studies conducted at the order of Alexei Kudrin’s Committee of Civil Initiatives, showed, the Vedomosti daily reported. The political response can slow down the manifestations of political activities for some time, but not the changes in massive moods of the Russian population, the Centre of Strategic Studies stated.

It is almost impossible to raise the presidential rating in the PR ways, moreover, the Internet is becoming the main source of information, and the middle class is lost for the TV propaganda, the Centre of Strategic Studies reported. The mistrust is also growing to other institutes of state power and to the United Russia Party. But the opposition also does not enjoy a high trust, as they lack clear-cut programs and a clear agenda. The experts expect disagreements in the key positions of the protesters and a new wave of making the movement stronger on a more developed political basis.

The convictions are growing in the society that the authorities cannot be changed in the legitimate way, as the institute of the elections is discredited, the Centre of Strategic Studies went on to say. In most focus groups the respondents said themselves about the possibility and their moods for a revolution, as there were no such moods last spring. But an armed coup is hardly probable, and three scenarios remain.

The most realistic scenario is a massive civil disobedience provoked by something, and its consequences are unpredictable.

The second scenario is voluntary changes in the state authorities.

The third scenario is a rapid degradation of the population and the extinction of the nation.

The report will not be passed to the Russian leadership for the purpose, but they will study it for sure, President of the Centre of Strategic Studies Mikhail Dmitriyev told the Vedomosti daily. Dmitriyev does not predict when and in what form a new upsurge of protests will begin, but believes that a worse economic situation may be a trigger mechanism for a new upsurge of protest activities.

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