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The IMF makes worse forecasts for Russian economy

September 18, 2012, 11:18 UTC+3

The official forecasts sound more pessimistic

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MOSCOW, September 18 (Itar-Tass) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) intends to raise a forecast for the inflation rate and reduce a GDP forecast in Russia for 2012-2013. Russian experts predict that the economic growth will not exceed 3.5-3.8% at the end of the year, the prices will go up at least by 6.8-7.5%. According to the economists, the stagnation of the industrial production, a low harvest level and higher tariffs of the natural monopolies are the negative reasons for this tendency. The exact figures were not made public yet. Now the IMF experts are working on another report over the world economy. The results of the report will be made public in October, the RBC daily reported. The IMF changes its forecasts for economic growth not for the first time. Earlier thanks to high oil prices in the middle of the year the GDP forecast was raised from 3.3% to four percent. The official forecasts sound more pessimistic. The Ministry of Economic Development does not rule out that the GDP rate will grow only by 3.5% and the inflation will reach seven percent.

Russian economists do not see anything surprising in the fact that the IMF is preparing to revise the GDP growth forecast in favour of a downward tendency. They predict already for a long time that the forecast may be revised from four percent to 3.7-3.9% over the dependence of Russian economy from the oil prices. As far as the inflation is concerned, when forecasting the inflation rate the IMF experts were guided by the figures on consumer prices, which were spurred up by a low forecast and the summer-autumn growth of the tariffs of the natural monopolies. “Speaking on a higher inflation rate, which the IMF predicted, one can recall about the adjustment of the regulated tariffs to the inflation rate. This results in higher production costs,” chief specialist of a major bank Andrei Kharinov told the Novye Izvestia daily. “Finally, a quicker inflation rate swallows some real incomes of people and reduces the domestic demand,” he underlined.

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