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The agency Moody’s forecasts a 30 % fall of rouble

July 24, 2012, 12:45 UTC+3

The agency Moody’s gave a negative scenario to the Russian banking system

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The rating agency Moody’s updated its forecast of the banks of Russia and the CIS states, the RBC daily reported. Its analysts believe that in case of a negative scenario on the financial markets Russian banks may face the problem of the capital deficit already in 12-18 months. Meanwhile, the rouble will become cheaper by 30%, the GDP will go down five percent.

The agency Moody’s gave a negative scenario to the Russian banking system, the newspaper noted. Analysts noted that the forecast is based on possible turbulences that are similar to the crisis in 2008-2009. In case of an acute stagnation in the economy and the rouble devaluation the crediting growth will slow down to five percent annually, the capital sufficiency level of Russian banks will make 4.5% (the minimal admissible level equals ten percent).

Meanwhile, the main scenario, which Moody’s analysts laid down in their survey, does not envisage any shocks for the banking system. Under this scenario the capital sufficiency level of Russian banks will reach 11.1% in 12-18 months. In the previous year the capital sufficiency level amounted to 14.2% in the whole banking system.

“In case of a Moody’s negative scenario the oil prices should fall lower than 80 dollars per barrel that is hardly probable,” the newspaper quoted HSBC chief economist Alexander Morozov as saying. Private banks can also be supported in case of a crisis, he said. For instance, they can be supported through subordinated credits. Chief of the BNP Paribas analytical department Yulia Tseplyaeva said that in case of crisis phenomena the state authorities can help private financial institutions. “Usually in case of assistance the state authorities are oriented at social aspects, including the amount of the funds of depositors in the balance, therefore, commercial banks can be also saved in a hard financial situation,” she believes.






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