Kommersant: US made up its mind on INF, senior Russian diplomat says
More than two weeks have passed since US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo gave Russia a 60-day ultimatum concerning the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), demanding that Moscow destroy the 9M729 missile, which, according to Washington, violates the bilateral document, or the US will withdraw from it. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Kommersant whether there is a chance to save the treaty.
The 9M729 missile does not violate the document, he said. "Our military has explained to the Americans that it is about upgrading the Iskander-M cruise missile system, which is already in service," Ryabkov noted, adding that the upgrade of the Iskander-M had been aimed at improving the efficiency of its warhead. "It also led to some other changes but they did not increase the missile’s range in breach of the Treaty," the Russian deputy foreign minister stressed.
He explained that "in fact, there is nothing to suspend as far as the INF Treaty goes because all the destruction and verification procedures were completed back in 2000." "It is only possible to blatantly violate the Treaty by producing and deploying banned missile systems," Ryabkov said. In this regard, he pointed out that "though the Americans have not yet created advanced systems of this kind, such research and development activities, which the Treaty does not clearly prohibit, are well underway in the United States," while "the existing elements of missile systems, banned in the document, have been and continue to be deployed to Europe."
"We are forced to proceed from the assumption that regardless of what Russia and other countries say or do, the US will move towards denouncing the document," Ryabkov noted.
When asked if Russia planned to take any steps to prevent the treaty’s collapse, the diplomat said that Moscow had initiated "a discussion of a draft resolution in support of the INF Treaty at the UN General Assembly." "When it gets down to a vote, it will be interesting to see what the countries who present themselves as active supporters of the existing arms control system will do, as well as those who call for advancing nuclear non-proliferation processes and even for destructing all nuclear weapons."
According to Ryabkov, "the US and European countries must understand that Russia will not be able to ignore the possible deployment of US ground-based intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, which will pose a threat to us and our allies, when Washington finally produces such missiles." "We will have to take effective retaliatory measures. We would like to caution against pushing the situation towards new missile crises, as I am confident that no reasonable country is interested in it," the Russian deputy foreign minister concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Are sanctions weakening Russia's economy?
Russian officials often tend to blame the national economy's stagnation on the impact of sanctions. While Washington pledges to impose a new round of sanctions against Moscow in the near future, Russia’s government has already announced that it expects the economic situation to deteriorate in 2019. Increasing taxes and attempts to artificially restrain demand are the main reasons, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Many Russian officials prefer to blame economic failures on western sanctions. For instance, Audit Chamber head Alexei Kudrin believes that the West's sanctions pose the greatest threat to Russia. He also mentioned restricted access to technologies and international financial resources, also some kind of sanctioning move.
Meanwhile, experts interviewed by the newspaper don’t think that sanctions are the only reason behind Russia’s problems. "On the one hand, we have a rather high level of corruption and low guarantees for the protection of private property," said Associate Professor with the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Sergei Khestanov. On the other hand, in his words, the sources of extensive growth reached their limits in Russia in 2012. "Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1998 default, a lot of development niches emerged here. And we achieved the best economic growth results between the default and 2012. Economic growth rates started to significantly slow down in 2012, when there were no sanctions at all. The reason was that the recovery growth model had reached its limits," the expert added.
"A strong state with a diversified economy would not suffer much from the sanctions that Russia has been facing, they would not become a serious obstacle preventing further growth," said Finam analyst Alexei Korenev. "If sanctions are lifted right now and the economic policy remains the same, would it be easier? Yes, a little bit. But will we turn into a modern country attractive for investors? No. We will maintain approximately the same position in the world as far as most figures are concerned," he added with confidence.
"If the state takes the place of the economy, it does not always lead to prosperity. The lack of competition is the reason, it leads straight to stagnation. In our country, competition is limited to that between the largest state companies, which is not normal," Managing Partner of Veta expert group Ilya Zharsky pointed out.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kosovo army threatens Serbs
The situation in the Balkans was the center of attention at a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and permanent members of the National Security Council in Moscow, as well as at a United Nations Security Council meeting in New York. The establishment of a Kosovo army is fraught with a new armed conflict in southern Europe, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
"The emergence of a Kosovo armed force poses a threat to regional peace and security, which is fraught with a repetition of the armed conflict," said Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya.
Senior Researcher with the Institute for Slavic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Pyotr Iskenderov told the newspaper that the formation of a Kosovo army may provoke local Serbs to take retaliatory steps to bolster their defense capabilities. In this case, the negotiation process involving Belgrade and Pristina, which the European Union has managed to maintain in recent years, will actually be buried. The expert does not rule out that if an armed conflict breaks out, it may engulf Albanians living in southern Serbia and Macedonia, as well as the Serb population of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to Iskenderov, Washington, who came up with the idea to form a Kosovo army, sees it as a way to strengthen its positions in the Balkans. In response, Moscow can either increase its support of Belgrade, particularly by boosting diplomatic efforts within the UN and other international organizations or strengthen defense cooperation with Serbia.
Iskenderov also said that the European Union and the United States seek to reduce Moscow’s influence on Belgrade and make Serbia end its military, political and economic cooperation with Russia. "Forming a Kosovo army is a way to exert pressure on Belgrade to make it enhance efforts to join NATO. Thus, the United States is trying to convince Serbia that the North Atlantic Alliance is its sole security provider, as well as its guarantor of stability in the Balkans," the expert said.
In addition, he said that the West also targeted energy cooperation between Moscow and Belgrade. A thing to note is that no final decision has been made yet on the TurkStream gas pipeline’s European route.
Media: Russian delegation heading to Davos
Russian businessmen and officials plan to attend the 2019 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The forum’s organizers have permitted Russian businessmen to come, Izvestia writes.
Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev told the paper that during the Davos forum, the fund plans to hold meetings with leading investors from various countries, including Europeans and Americans. He stressed that "there will be a lot of talks."
Teletrade Group Chief Analyst Oleg Bogdanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the Davos forum was an important platform for Russian businessmen and authorities. "It is impossible to give up economic cooperation with western countries because there is still extensive trade with the European Union. Russian commodity companies depend on prices determined on global markets and it is vitally important for them to understand how the global economy develops and what key players think. Without talking to partners, it is difficult to figure out what direction trends on various markets are taking," Bogdanov said. According to him, "Russia’s position will matter when energy issues are discussed, as the OPEC+ agreements have made it clear that pressing oil market issues cannot be resolved without Russia."
"This is not only about the Russian authorities’ desire to ensure the country’s presence in the global economy as a respected player, but also about their wish to build a constructive dialogue with European business circles despite sanctions," Chairman of the Board of Directors of 2K Engineering Company Ivan Andrievsky told the paper. At the same time, in his opinion, "if Russia is boycotted for the first time since it began participating in the forum, everyone will consider it as a negative sign, particularly because the boycott would be initiated by the West." Besides," Davos makes a lot of money off the forum’s participants, including Russians, so its organizers are first and foremost interested in ensuring that a Russian delegation will come," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Father of incarcerated Russian citizen Butina hopes to have her back home in 2019
Russian graduate student Maria Butina, who pleaded partially guilty to a US court on December 13, has not contacted her family for nearly a week, her father Valery Butin told Izvestia.
"I haven’t heard my daughter’s voice for nearly a week. I have only one explanation: this is another attempt on the part of the Americans to exert pressure on Maria. The prison authorities blame the lack of connection on technical issues but I don’t believe them. When people are denied the opportunity to talk to their loved ones, they become more vulnerable. Besides, Masha still remains in an individual cell," Butin noted.
According to him, Maria’s decision to make a deal with the investigation was also the result of pressure. "I have been asking myself why did they have to put this girl through such tribulations, she did not commit any violent crime. Why couldn't they have carried on with the legal procedures and release her in her own recognizance?" the Russian’s father said.
At the same time, he pointed out that Maria had been arrested on the eve of the Helsinki meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. "Some senior US officials apparently thought it was necessary to find a Russian national who could be blamed for interfering in the country’s domestic affairs in order to overshadow bilateral relations. In this situation, Maria became a victim of mainstream politics," the father said.
However, against all odds, the family hopes that Maria "will be back home as soon as possible." "The most severe sentence she may get is five years in prison. Nevertheless, everything depends on the judge, whether she will come to the conclusion that Maria is fully cooperating with the investigation. So the situation is ambiguous. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility that the prison term will exceed five years in case the judge decides that Masha was not cooperative enough. But we hope that it will not happen and expect to see my daughter back home in 2019," Valery Butin concluded.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews