Media: Five countries sign deal to end 22-year dispute on Caspian Sea
The leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan have signed a milestone agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, resolving a 22-year dispute. The Convention differentiates the water area, regulates the issues of military cooperation, development of biological resources, seabed and subsoil. The five nations adopted the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea and signed a number of intergovernmental documents.
The parties developed a special legal status of the Caspian, not defining it as a sea nor as a lake. According to the document, the surface water will be in common usage. However, the seabed rich in natural resources as well as the waters will be divided among the countries by concluding bilateral agreements. The use of the waters will be regularly discussed at the level of deputy foreign ministers, the first meeting will be held within six months.
Izvestia looks into the fact the convention allows Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to build a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline to transport hydrocarbons from Central Asia to the European Union. However, according to experts quoted by the paper, certain efforts will be required to coordinate the issues of environmental safety with the rest of the countries of the region.
According to Kommersant, the countries have solved practically all the issues of the Caspian Sea, except for the key one - the document does not discuss the rules of dividing the seabed, and the countries will have to differentiate their sectors in separate negotiations. According to the newspaper, this virtually "looks like an informal recognition of the inability of the five Caspian states to agree on the rules of the game concerning oil and gas reserves and transit pipelines." The convention formally gives the right to lay pipelines and cables in the countries’ own sectors, which requires only environmental approval from all five countries. However, for any such projects in the Southern Caspian, the participating countries will first need to divide the seabed.
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the Convention’s provision banning deployment of military bases of third countries in the Caspian Sea was important for Russia, the newspaper wrote, referring to recent concerns about Kazakhstan.
At the same time, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Convention does not solve all the problems of the region. In the next two years, Moscow could significantly increase its naval forces in the Caspian region, which are already the most powerful there, the newspaper wrote. Moreover, all Caspian countries planned to strengthen their navy in the region, which in many respects is connected with their oil and gas interests in the region.
Military expert Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, "According to Western estimates, we are talking about reserves of 30 bln tonnes of oil and 145 trillion cubic meters of gas. Of course, there is and will be a clear or hidden struggle for these resources, despite any signed conventions." Popov reminded that before the Aktau summit all the countries of the region had held military maneuvers in the Caspian Sea.
Izvestia: Syria plans to buy Russian trains starting from 2019
Syria is interested in buying railway rolling stock from Russia, considering the Russian side as its main partner in the matter of restoration of its transport infrastructure, the press service of Syrian Railways told Izvestia. Russia's Uralvagonzavod corporation, a manufacturer of railway equipment, told the newspaper that shipments of the company's products to Damascus could be arranged in 2019.
Russia assisting in rebuilding railway tracks and purchases of its rolling stock are being discussed, Head of Syrian Railways Najib Al-Fares told Izvestia. The company’s press service noted the importance of Russian-Syrian contacts in the development of rail transport in the Arab Republic and added that Russia is their main partner in the matter of restoring the railway infrastructure.
Uralvagonzavod told Izvestia that the issue of cooperating with Syrian Railways regarding the supplies is in the pipeline.
"Uralvagonzavod is interested in supplying a wide range of rolling stock, including cisterns, low-sided cars, platforms, in the amount necessary to upgrade the Syrian railway. The deliveries can be arranged starting from 2019," the company told the newspaper.
Russian manufacturer of locomotives and rail equipment Transmashholding also does not rule out a possible cooperation in restoring Syrian railways. "At the moment we do not have any existing projects with the Syrian Arab Republic, but if there is interest we will be ready for negotiations," the company’s press service told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Decline of Turkish lira forces Erdogan to play by Kremlin’s rules
Turkey is preparing to switch to settlements in national currency with the largest trading partners, including Russia, President of the Republic Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after the exchange rate of the Turkish lira fell to a historic low due to US raising duties on Turkish aluminum and steel. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the situation might prompt the Turkish leadership to strengthen contacts with Moscow, but on the latter’s terms.
According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Turkey should prepare for a significant strengthening of partnerships with other countries. Russia and Turkey are almost in a similar position - fluctuations in the Russian currency are caused by a new package of sanctions, which is expected to be introduced by the US on August 22.
The question is whether "companions in misfortune" - Turkey and Russia - can unite their efforts and concentrate on developing bilateral economic cooperation, Turkish political analyst Kerim Has told the newspaper. According to the expert, the answer leans more towards a "no" for several reasons. First, the crisis of November 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian jet fighter, while its consequences demonstrated that Moscow has no illusions about the degree of trust between the two countries. Despite the current normalization of relations, it is obvious that the issue would not allow Moscow to trust Ankara fully. Second, statistics indicate that the EU countries account for around 50% of Turkey's imports and exports. Russia’s figures are much lower. In addition, Ankara depends entirely on Western armaments, which it receives from the US as a member of NATO, according to the expert.
At the same time, the expert sees benefits in the current situation for the Kremlin. In a difficult economic situation and in tense relations with the West and the US, Ankara will be have to move closer to Russia, but on Moscow’s terms. According to Has, this situation plays into the Kremlin's hands, because Russia needs Ankara's "loyalty" on many issues related to the settlement of the Syrian conflict and the much anticipated military operation in Syria’s Idlib.
In addition, Sergey Lavrov will meet with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on August 13-14, the expert told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Kommersant: Russia should focus on domestic development as its response options to US sanctions are limited
The new US sanctions against Russia announced last week show that US-Russian relations are entering a new phase of escalation, which Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called a full-fledged trade war, Kommersant wrote. At the request of the newspaper, leading Russian and foreign experts analyzed possible changes in the Russian economy, as well as different scenarios of Russia’s response measures.
Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs Fyodor Lukyanov told the newspaper that Russia's capabilities are limited. The discussed measures - ceasing supplies of rocket engines, titanium, uranium and others - will damage certain American producers, but they will also become a financial blow to the Russian budget, the expert added.
"Russia should move to managing multiple risks and surviving in an environment of extremely severe pressure - without engaging in squabbles, not striving for contacts, generally abandoning ‘normalizing relations with the US’ for a while, given that the ‘norm’ as America imagines it, today goes beyond permissible levels," Lukyanov said.
"Sanctions - not only against Russia - are becoming one of the main instruments of US foreign policy, replacing diplomacy," Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told the newspaper. Moreover, according to program director of the Valdai Club Foundation Andrey Sushentsov, relationships will continue to deteriorate. "There is a conundrum: at the level of the heads of state there seems to be mutual understanding, but not only it does not help, but even hinders the improvement of Russian-American relations," he told Kommersant.
"Russia is much more dependent on the West economically than the other way around. Talks about suspending energy resources trade is absurd, since it is still the largest source of income for the Russian government," Professor at the American University (Washington D.C.) Anton Fedyashin told the newspaper. According to him, the best response to sanctions would be Russia using this opportunity to make the necessary economic reforms in Russia and to make it more competitive in high technology.
According to Stefan Meister, Head of Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, Moscow will try to discredit US sanctions and hope that the split in the American domestic politics leads to softening of sanctions. At the same time, he adds, Moscow will remain open to negotiations without making concessions on such issues as Crimea, Ukraine, NATO, as well as the Skripal case.
Vedomosti: Idea to take out ‘bumper profits’ from mining, chemical firms threatens Russia's strategic goals
Last week Presidential Aide Andrei Belousov was been given the green light from President Vladimir Putin on the initiative of taking out as much as 513.7 bln rubles ($7.6 bln) from Russia’s top mining, chemical and petrochemical companies. After this became public, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that Putin agreed that the government should work on the initiative. A source in the financial and economic block told Vedomosti that the initiative is Belousov’s idea, it is doubtful that it would come into effect in the current economic conditions.
Representatives of the metallurgy industry met with Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Yevtukhov in the Ministry, Vedomosti wrote, and so far, there are no decisions on the issue. According to several participants of the meeting, the meeting attendees were recommended to find the least painful ways to withdraw excess profits. Two other participants told Vedomosti, that other gold miners and copper companies could be added to the list. "Toughening of the tax burden for the metals industry jeopardizes the implementation of Russia's strategic national goals," one of the participants in the meeting at the Ministry told the newspaper.
Owner of NLMK Vladimir Lisin, commenting on the initiative, said that the measures would encourage inefficiency. Belousov's plan does not take into account companies’ earlier investments. Several top managers from Belousov list have a similar position, they told Vedomosti. Those who invested in production, now get a higher profitability, explained one of them. The share of foreign assets in the business is important, as well as the share of exports in revenue, another top manager told the newspaper.
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