Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Unity between Astana peace guarantors on the rocks
The United States doubts that the "Astana trio" of Syrian ceasefire guarantors (Russia, Turkey and Iran) will be able to continue work to resolve the Syrian crisis, a State Department source told Nezavisimaya Gazeta in the run-up to another high-level meeting, which kicks off in Russia’s Black Sea resort of Sochi on July 30. Experts interviewed by the paper likewise noted that the troika’s unity is at stake, above all, because of Damascus’ plans to launch an offensive against militants.
"The Sochi meeting participants will discuss the situation around Idlib, where [the government forces’] military operation is expected to begin immediately after the end of the southern campaign. Turkey would like to prevent this operation, and it has already sent its counterproposals to Russia," Kirill Semyonov, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), explained. According to the expert, the Idlib offensive will make the Astana process pointless.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad confirmed last week that Idlib would soon be a new target for his army and the forces loyal to it, stressing that the government’s duty was to liberate every inch of Syrian soil.
Meanwhile, former US State Department’s top adviser on Syria Frederick Hoff suggested in an interview with the paper that the Kremlin wants to ensure assistance for Damascus to rebuild Syria, that’s why it brings up the refugee issue in the West. Russian authorities argue that neither Western Europe nor countries neighboring Syria will ease the crippling burden of Syrian refugees until Syria’s economy is fully restored, he pointed out.
Nevertheless, both Western politicians and taxpayers need political guarantees to invest in Syria, he stressed, adding that, otherwise, Russia and Iran will shoulder the burden of rebuilding that country.
Izvestia: OSCE mulls visit to Crimea
A delegation of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is ready to travel to Crimea to assess the human rights situation on the Black Sea peninsula, the press service of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) informed Izvestia.
Currently, the key stumbling block to the OSCE observers’ visit to Crimea is attempts to challenge the peninsula’s status. The ODIHR’s press service explained that, in order to dispatch its experts to Crimea, it will need a preliminary invitation from Kiev and assistance from the current Crimean authorities to ensure entry from Ukrainian territory.
Russian Presidential Envoy to Crimea Georgy Muradov told the paper Moscow hails visits by representatives of international organizations. However, they must understand they will not be able to travel to the Black Sea peninsula with a Ukrainian invitation, he stressed.
"We have said on numerous occasions that we are ready to receive independent experts, and we invite all international organizations to visit Crimea. Some of them obtain Ukrainian visas and try to get there with them, making it clear unambiguously that they see Crimea as part of Ukraine. Crimea is Russian territory. Therefore, it is impossible to come to the peninsula without discussing this issue with Moscow."
Nevertheless, the OSCE’s statement on its willingness to send a delegation to Crimea could be regarded as a positive sign, the paper quoted a German MP and member of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Markus Frohnmaier as saying. He noted that many of his fellow lawmakers were tired of the incessant anti-Russian rhetoric.
In spite of the fact that the OSCE keeps talking about getting Kiev’s permission, in reality everyone understands that Crimea is an integral part of Russia, he stressed. The overwhelming majority of Crimea’s residents made their choice at the referendum, and the territorial issue has been resolved once and for all. It is desirable that the OSCE formally recognize that fact, the German politician said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: France, Iberia seek to diversify energy supplies to Europe
Three European countries plan to create a new unified energy system to ensure gas supplies from North Africa and other regions. They are France and the two Iberian states of Spain and Portugal. Paris and Madrid are exploring options for new joint gas pipelines, with Lisbon waiting in the wings. Everything seems to suggest that the primary motivation behind the newly-announced strategy is to cut the European Union’s dependence on gas supplies from Russia by means of increasing LNG exports, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to media reports, Spain has eight regasification terminals, another one is located in Portugal, with 21 such facilities overall in Europe. In the end, it is Spain that wants to be the leader in diversifying gas supplies through delivering LNG by sea.
"While European politicians highlight the need to diversify gas supplies, that does not necessarily mean they are talking about the US. For example, Russia’s Novatek natural gas production company, which is vigorously exploring Asia and plans to elevate the volume of supplies to Europe by sea, can fill that niche in the market," said Alor analyst Alexey Antonov.
However, other experts interviewed by the paper admitted that political implications regarding gas supply are powerful. "That is why European leaders can now seek to create a new gas transportation system, even if it does not promise much profit. Besides, the Americans have said over and over again that they are ready to bear the brunt of the expenses for the construction of terminals to receive American LNG. So, these plans can turn out to be quite feasible," Director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics Nikita Isayev told the paper.
According to the expert, in addition to tensions between Brussels and Washington, as well as Europe and Russia, there is a rift between different European states. "Earlier in Europe there was a tug-of-war between Germany, which favored Russian gas supplies and an alliance of Eastern European and Baltic countries, which backed by Brussels, have been seeking to become the key distributors of alternative supplies. France and Spain, which have been marginalized, are now striving to regain influence in Europe," Isayev emphasized.
Kommersant: North, South Korean leaders might attend Eastern Economic Forum
South Korean President Moon Jae-in is interested in taking part in the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) scheduled to take place in Vladivostok on September 11-13, a diplomatic source in Moscow confirmed to Kommersant. However, the final decision has not been made yet, it will depend in a very large measure on an answer from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. If both leaders eventually agree to visit Russia simultaneously, the event will bring together the leaders of all four major Northeast Asian nations, that is, Japan, China, South and North Korea.
The arrival of the four Northeast Asian leaders will boost the prestige of the Eastern Economic Forum, said Ivan Zuenko, a research fellow at the Center for Asia Pacific Studies of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Of course, any real multilateral agreements are unlikely to be reached at this first meeting," he told the paper. "However, the meeting in itself can later help achieve some specific results on a bilateral basis."
North Korea-related issues can divert the attention of the forum participants from its traditional agenda, according to Dmitry Streltsov, Head of the Department of Oriental Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). He added though that political issues could be discussed on the sidelines of the summit. "After all, the Eastern Economic Forum is dedicated to the economy, and I believe it will focus on discussing economic projects," he pointed out.
This format makes it possible to discuss issues that are beyond the scope of the Korean settlement, for example, the common security architecture in Northeast Asia, said Alexander Gabuyev, Head of the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. "This idea was put forward in September 2010 by then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and then Chinese leader Hu Jintao," the expert recalled. "It implies equal and indivisible security in the region, that is, consideration for each other’s concerns in this area."
Izvestia: Hydrocarbon production up thanks to demand for oil and gas in Europe
The production of oil and gas in Russia increased year-on-year in June, Izvestia writes citing data provided by the Russian Economic Development Ministry. According to the ministry, the growth in oil production stems, in particular, from the change in the OPEC+ parameters. Gas production increased 8 percentage points due to record high demand for Russian fuel in Europe. Oil production grew 1.2% for the first time since last August.
According to Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund, the new OPEC+ quotas played a major role in boosting production. The expert similarly noted that demand for oil continues to be high in EU markets.
The hike in gas production, which reached 53.5 bln cubic meters, is due to a substantial increase in exports to Europe, Gazprom’s press service informed Izvestia. During the first six months of this year, the company exported more than 100 bln cubic meters of gas, a 5.8-percent increase compared to last year.
The rise in exports is primarily affected by the growing seasonal demand from the EU, especially Germany, Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, explained. Together with the UK and Poland, Germany seeks to minimize the use of coal, which pushes up demand for gas from Russia, the expert noted.
According to analysts’ forecasts, the trend of mounting demand for Russian gas will persist in the years to come. Germany alone can increase gas consumption by 10-15 bln cubic meters or 17% by 2028.
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