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Ukraine’s elections to have no major effect on overall situation

October 24, 2014, 16:22 UTC+3 Alexandrova Lyudmila
© Viktor Drachyov/TASS

MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. Ukraine’s parliamentary elections due on Sunday will be of importance mostly for Ukraine’s internal political affairs but will cause little effect, if at all, on the overall crisis settlement process in the country and around it, or on Kiev’s relations with Russia, analysts say.

The Ukrainians will be electing Verkhovna Rada members in the whole of the country’s territory but for the territories of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, with their electorate totalling several million. Thirty seats will be reserved for both areas and also for Crimea and Sevastopol, which Kiev still regards as Ukrainian land.

The likely winner is known in advance: the bloc of the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko. Whether Poroshenko will fail to gain full control of parliament or have to look for a coalition partner or, possibly, cede the post of the prime minister to a competitor is anyone’s guess.

“Opinion polls vary, but all evoke certain doubts regarding their authenticity, first and foremost because holding a proper survey in a situation like the current one is very hard. However, if their findings are put together, one can say with a high degree of probability that the Poroshenko Bloc will attain a comfortable victory by gaining at least a third of the votes and possibly more to enter parliament, the director of the Kiev-based Institute of Political Studies and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, has told TASS.

Whatever the election results, the parliamentary elections will mean very little for relations with Russia and the overall situation surrounding the Ukrainian crisis, says the president of the Center for Current Politics, Sergey Mikheyev. He is very critical of what he described as “religious faith in elections.”

“There had been certain hopes before Poroshenko won the presidential election in May, but it has not become better,” he told TASS.

The outcome of the voting is of some importance to the political processes inside Ukraine and to the line-up of forces on the domestic scene. As for the real state of affairs, the elections will have no positive effects on it at all, Mikheyev says. Besides, among those who will take seats in the Verkhovna Rada there will be practically no professionals. “No stabilization is due. No political or economic problems will be resolved. The authorities will be legitimate, but this will have no bearing on the solution of real problems,” Mikheyev argues.

“Not a single pro-Russian force will be present in the Verkhovna Rada. The yet-to-be elected parliament will long remain under the pressure of anti-Russian hysteria," Mikheyev forecasts.

“Poroshenko’s victory may bring about a situation where the most notorious figures present on the Ukrainian political scene will be isolated. This applies to the main war criminals and US agents - Turchynov, Avakov, Yatsenyuk and Parubiy,” says the director of the Political Studies Institute, Sergey Markov. “One may assume that Poroshenko may try to form a majority without them to have appointed his own prime minister, interior minister and chief of national security,” he told TASS.

Markov recalled a recent statement by the chief of the Russian presidential staff, Sergey Ivanov, to the effect Russia would recognize the forthcoming parliamentary election in Ukraine.

Ivanov said Russia was interested to see Ukraine embark on some normal, civilized track and to become a state not hostile to Russia capable of supporting itself.”

Markov recalled that Russia recognized last May’s parliamentary elections in which Poroshenko emerged the winner, but a massive military operation against Donbass began virtually in no time.

It should also be remembered that the democratically-minded part of the population of Ukraine will be unable to take part in the forthcoming elections, because their leaders have been barred from the campaign and have no chance to contest parliamentary seats.

The Deputy Director of the CIS Studies Institute, Vladimir Zharikhin, sees certain effects the elections will have on the general situation. “On the one hand, there will be many more radically minded legislators in a future Verkhovna Rada, but on the other hand, Poroshenko will manage to form a pro-presidential majority and our relations will depend to a greater extent on relations with that majority than those with all Verkhovna Rada members.”

Zharikhin agreed that Poroshenko’s mode of behaviour was quite often far from ideal, but “it is possible to do some business with him, in contrast to the more radically minded Yatsenyuk and Turchynov.


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