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Russian analysts say US developed measures to deter Russia long before Ukrainian crisis

June 04, 2014, 18:02 UTC+3 Zamyatina Tamara
© AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin

MOSCOW, June 04. /ITAR-TASS/. US and NATO got down to planning a buildup of military activities around Russia and military/political pressures this country faces now long before the reunification of Crimea with the Russian Federation or the outbreak of unrest against the Kiev authorities in the south-eastern regions of the country, Russian experts say.

The Americans simply used Ukraine as an instrument for reaching their political objectives.

President Barack Obama said in Warsaw on Tuesday that Washington was pondering deployment of more military equipment in Eastern Europe and an expansion of military collaboration with Ukraine.

He also said he had asked the Congress to allocate a $1 billionas a backup for these measures. What is more, Washington and Kiev have already scheduled two military exercises — the Rapid Trident 2014 and the Sea Breeze 2014, for the period of July to December.

NATO ships, including the American ones, have launched regular patrolling missions in the Black Sea on the rotation basis. The Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed concern over the fact, as Washington is violating the Montreux convention that restricts militarization of the Black Sea.

Nor does the Pentagon make any secret of unfolding the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe. Admiral James Winnefeld, the ninth Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Washington plans to deploy 48 ground-based anti-missile systems and sea-based Aegis anti-missile systems.

“The current crisis in Ukraine arose from the US policies, and not only from the total plundering of Ukraine or the degeneration of its ruling elite,” Dr. Alexei Podberyozkin, the director of the Center for Defense and Political Research at Moscow’s MGIMO Diplomatic University told ITAR-TASS.

“White House emissaries overtly enticed the supporters of (Ukraine’s) “euro-integration” on the Maidan (Kiev’s notorious Independence Square) to bring down the legitimate administration of President Viktor Yanukovych, and now they hail the punitive operation the Ukrainian military and paramilitaries are conducting in the south-eastern regions,” Dr. Podberyozkin said.

“Long-term planning of the policy of driving a wedge between Ukraine and Russia can be clearly traced to the end of the 1980s, and the persistency of this political line was maintained by the successive Administrations, State Department officials, as well as CIA heads, people in the Pentagon and other departments,” he believes.

“Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admits the US has spent $5 billion for the promotion of democracy in Ukraine over the past twenty years,” Dr. Podberyozkin said. “In other words, the subsidizing of pro-American entities in Ukraine started long before today’s events, and it was steady, purpose-oriented and affluent.”

“This exposes a protracted strategy of pulling Ukraine over into the camp of US and NATO allies that can be traced down,” Dr. Poberyozkin said. “And the bottom line there lies in Washington’s unbending Russophobia.”

“Unfortunately, late-Soviet leadership, as well as the Russian leadership of the 1990s did not have a long-term precise policy towards Ukraine, a fact that enabled it to pull out of the USSR in 1991 and to set up an artificial state, which had never existed in history,” Dr. Podberyozkin said. “No attention was given to the importance of promoting pro-Russian organizations and soft-power institutes there.”

“In the light of it, it’s interesting to take a look at how China is building its relations with this or that country,” he went on. “Qi Huang, the Director of International Relations Institute at the Chinese Foreign Ministry says China doesn’t consider any foreign country from just one angle and only during a selected period.”

“A systemic approach requires different angles of view at different periods,” Dr. Podberyozkin said. “In other words, Chinese researchers and politicians are trying to avoid a linear perception of military and political reality and build their analyses on the forecasts for development of the situation.”

He also made a reference to the vice-president of the aforementioned Chinese institute, Gou Xingang, who singles out three basic tendencies clearly visible in the second decade of the 21st century.

First is the apparent deterioration of the US geo-strategic role and presence in the world after the peak of in 1999 that was marked by the war in Yugoslavia.

The second tendency is the growing economic, political and military role of Russia, which is supported to a big degree by a subjective factor like the strong national leader, Vladimir Putin.

Tendency number three is China’s growing role and influence that reaches different parts of the world beyond the Asia Pacific and the increasing influence of the Russian-Chinese cooperation.

“The situation in Ukraine is wielding an exclusively positive influence on the dynamics of Russian-Chinese rapprochement,” Dr. Gou says in his research.

“If you agree with the Chinese counterpart, you have to admit that the military and political situation in the world will inevitably undergo radically reformatting already in the medium term,” Dr. Podberyozkin said. “Quite possibly, several concurrent military and political coalitions will come into existance.”

Among the possible coalitions, he named the US/EU that will likely embrace a few other countries (The West or the Grand Coalition), China and - possibly - other countries.

It is not ruled out that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will transform into a coalition incorporating its full-time members and observer nations (the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization) plus possible allies in the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Other likely coalitions are those Brazil and certain Latin American countries can form, and the Islamic nations.

Dr. Podberyozkin believes that a defense and political coalition may emerge in the future around Russia. Also, China may join in or build up a Eurasian coalition.

“Developments in Ukraine have shown that chaos, poor governing and a total lack of system often cover up some clear long-term tendencies, which enable one to draw up distant forecasts and do strategic planning,” he said.

 

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