MOSCOW, February 2. /TASS/. Implementation of a negative scenario with a ban for US investors to buy Russian sovereign bonds may increase the yield on Russian federal loan (OFZ) bonds by 0.5 percentage points during their offering, head of the research and forecasting team of the Russian Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) Natalia Porokhova told TASS on Friday.
"The share of the US capital as holders of the Russian sovereign debt can be estimated at the level of 10%. The US investors accounted for about 1/3 of Russian debt purchases during the latest offerings among nonresidents. If we consider the negative scenario of the ban for the US capital to buy the Russian debt, it can increase the OFZ bonds yield by 0.5 percentage points upon the offering," Porokhova noted.
According to the ACRA, the share of Russia on the global sovereign debt market is about 0.3%. "Nevertheless, many foreign analysts mentioned throughout the year of 2017 that Russian assets are among the most attractive for investments, owing to high real interest rates and so on. Therefore, the statement regarding negative effects for the US asset management companies is more likely to be associated with the current highest interest of investors, rather than with the scale of the Russian sovereign debt (it is small). Investors’ appetite is growing across the globe with regard to the risk and securities of developing economies, including Russia, against the background of low interest rates in developed economies," the expert noted.
The US Treasury Department cautioned in the report cited by Bloomberg earlier on Friday that extension of sanctions against the Russian sovereign debt and Russian derivative securities may lead to adverse consequences not merely for the Russian but also for the global financial market and for US investors.
According to the report, "introduction of sanctions against the Russian debt "could hinder the competitiveness of large US asset managers and potentially have negative spillover effects into global financial markets and businesses.".