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Oil price plunge, policy of US authorities mentioned as key risks for Russian economy

June 12, 1:50 UTC+3 LIMASSOL

According to former department head at Russia’s Economic Development Ministry Kirill Tremasov, another drop in oil prices and the technological upgrading are two key risks for the country’s economy

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LIMASSOL, June 12. /TASS/. A drop in oil prices, technological upgrading, the policy of the US authorities and changing dynamics of capital flows on the global market are the main risks for the Russian economy, experts at the Cbonds conference in Cyprus said on Sunday.

According to former department head at Russia’s Economic Development Ministry Kirill Tremasov, another drop in oil prices and the technological upgrading are two key risks for the country’s economy. "Technological risks are something that no one can predict. The future of commodities is also related to technological upgrading," he said. Currently everyone is focused on the actions of OPEC and the shale revolution, though the technological development may also make future oil production cheaper, Tremasov added.

"All in all, everything that has to do with digitalization, the very same blockchain, may result in a global change of the political landscape. In essence, blockchain decentralizes certain functions of the government and may lead to political changes across the world," he said.

"We and our clients are concerned about changes in the dynamics of global capital flows. At the first stage, such changes are invisible and have a huge effect on the markets that can hardly be explained. We have already seen it partially after Donald Trump was elected as President of the United States in end-2016," Maksim Korovin, Senior Analyst at VTB Capital, said, adding that the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike has also automatically triggered capital outflow from emerging markets. "But it is really challenging to forecast such things," he said.

According to Chief Strategist at BCS Global Markets’ Prime Brokerage department Leonid Ignatyev, "the main ‘black swan’ is the US President, who may not stay in the president’s seat until the next term," which will be a shock for the markets and will also trigger capital flows.

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