WASHINGTON, January 16. /TASS/. The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.4% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018, according to the renewed analytical report that was circulated in Washington on Monday.
The organization leaves some of the estimates from its October report unchanged. At the same time the authors of the report warn that "there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of the incoming U.S. administration and its global ramifications."
"The assumptions underpinning the forecast should be more specific by the time of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook, as more clarity emerges on U.S. policies and their implications for the global economy," the report said. The authors of the report note that the renews forecast is based on the assumption of a changing policy mix under a new administration in the United States.
"Staff (of IMF) now project some near-term fiscal stimulus and a less gradual normalization of monetary policy. This projection is consistent with the steepening U.S. yield curve, the rise in equity prices, and the sizable appreciation of the U.S. dollar since the November 8 election. This WEO forecast also incorporates a firming of oil prices following the agreement among OPEC members and several other major producers to limit supply." according to the report.
"The outlook for advanced economies has improved for 2017-18, reflecting somewhat stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as a projected fiscal stimulus in the United States," the report said.
According to the document, "growth prospects have marginally worsened for emerging market and developing economies, where financial conditions have generally tightened. Near-term growth prospects were revised up for China, due to expected policy stimulus, but were revised down for a number of other large economies-most notably India, Brazil, and Mexico."
The IMF experts note that "the balance of risks is viewed as being to the downside" but "there are also upside risks to near-term growth."
"Specifically, global activity could accelerate more strongly if policy stimulus turns out to be larger than currently projected in the United States or China," the report said.
The IMF report indicates that the growth of the US economy is projected at 2.3% and 2.5% in 2017 and 2018 respectively. These figures are better than the figures in the October report by 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points.
The IMF has left forecasts for the euro zone almost unchanged - the growth is seen at 1.6% in 2017 and also 1.6% in 2018.
The forecast for the Italian economy has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points for 2017 and 0.3 percentage points for 2018 - respectively to 0.7% and 0.8%.
In Japan, the IMF expects economic growth at 0.8 and 0.5% in 2017 and 2018 (by 0.2 percentage points better than in the October forecast).
The fund improved estimate for the growth of the UK economy in 2017 to 1.5% against 1.1% set in the previous forecast, and worsened the figure for 2018 to 1.4% against 1.7%.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) remain drivers of the global economic growth. According to IMF projections, India's economic growth in 2017-2018 will be 7.2% (previously 7.6%) and 7.7%, China’s economy will grow by 6.5% (forecast improved by 0.3 percentage points), and 6%.
For Russia, the fund’s forecast has not changed in comparison with the October report - the economic growth in 2017-2018 will be 1.1% and 1.2% respectively. Projection for South Africa remained also unchanged 0.8% and 1.6%. The IMF downgraded forecast for Brazil’s economic growth to 0.2% and 1.5% against 0.5% and 1.8% set in the October forecast.
In the CIS countries, the IMF now forecasts the economic growth to be 1.5% and 1.8% in 2017 and 2018. Both figures are better than October by 0.1 percentage points. Data for the CIS are not given specifically per country because the IMF prepared main forecasts and analytical reports in the spring and autumn, and summer and winter updates are made in a simplified format.