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Sberbank significantly improves macroeconomic forecast for 2016

May 25, 19:34 UTC+3 MOSCOW
Sberbank improved its forecast for the average oil price in 2016 from $35 to $40 per barrel, inflation - from 8.5% to 6.8%, according to the bank’s presentation on the financial results
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MOSCOW, May 25. /TASS/. Sberbank improved its forecast for the average oil price in 2016 from $35 to $40 per barrel, inflation - from 8.5% to 6.8%, according to the bank’s presentation on the financial results of the Q1 2016 under IFRS.

Sberbank also significantly improved its forecast for the average annual ruble exchange rate - from 77.4 to 68 rubles per dollar.

The bank also improved its forecast for GDP growth - from the decline of 2.2% to 0.7% in the current year.

 Sberbank expects the lending growth of Russian banks at 0-5% in 2016, according to the presentation,

Earlier the bank forecast growth in loans to companies for the year at 6-8%, to population - decline of 3-5%. In addition, bank slightly downgraded its outlook for the growth of retail deposits - from 16-18% to 15-18%, loans to individuals - from 12-14% to at least 10%.

According to the Russian Central Bank loans to individuals in general in the banking sector decreased by 1.3% in 4 months of 2016, to the companies - by 4.4%, deposits of individuals - by 2.3%, companies - by 6%.

However, Sberbank expects to see continuation of decline in investment against the backdrop of high economic uncertainty. Net capital outflow will decline to $35 bln in 2016 against $57 bln in 2015, according to the bank.

The Russian Central Bank forecasts oil price at the level of $30 per barrel for the current year, inflation of 6-7%, and decline of Russia’s GDP of 1.3-1.5% amid capital outflow of $40 bln.

Sberbank has no plans to sell its Ukrainian business, Alexander Morozov, Sberbank's Deputy Chairman of the board told a phone conference.

"To date we have no plans about it. The Ukrainian business generates income," Morozov said.

"We expect reasonable reduction of the key rate. Not a quick one, not more than by 50 basis points per each reduction. I would not exclude [the rate will be] below 10%, say 9.5% by the year-end," Morozov said.

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