MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. The base case scenario of the 2035 Master Plan of Oil Sector Development provides for decline of oil and gas condensate production in Russia to 531 mln tonnes, Deputy General Director of Institute of Energy and Finance Fund Alexey Belogoryev told TASS on Thursday. Russia produced 534 mln tonnes of oil in 2015.
"We expect the decline to 531 mln tonnes in 2016 and to 521 mln tonnes in 2020 under the base case scenario. The year of 2023 will see the minimal level of 516 mln tonnes, with gradual return to 523-525 mln tonnes a year after that," the expert said.
The base case scenario of the Institute of Energy and Finance addresses average annual prices of $40-50 per barrel in 2016-2018 and $60-80 per barrel later on, Belogoryev added.
Oil production may decline to 506 mln tonnes per year in 2020 if oil prices are lower and taxation conditions are tougher.
It was reported earlier the base case scenario of the Russia’s 2035 Energy Strategy provided for annual oil production at the level of 525 mln tonnes and refining of 240 mln tonnes yearly.