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RUSSIA'S ECONOMY

World Bank expects capital outflow from Russia at $113 bln in 2015, $82 bln in 2016

The World Bank has drastically worsened its forecast for Russia’s GDP decline in 2015 - to 3.8% from 2.7% that was set in the previous forecast

© ITAR-TASS/Valeriy Matytsin

MOSCOW, September 30th. / TASS /. The outflow of capital from Russia in 2015 is projected at $113 billion, in 2016 - $ 82 billion in 2017 - $67 billion, World Bank Chief Economist for Russia Birgit Hunsley told journalists on Wednesday.

According to the latest forecast of Russia’s Economic Development Ministry, capital outflow is expected to reach $93 billion in 2015 and $80 billion in 2016.

Since the beginning of the sanctions regime Russia has experienced capital outflow decline in direct investments. But the rate of capital outflow is becoming lower, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier.

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According to his estimates, in the third quarter the rate of capital outflow was $7 billion against $32.5 billion in the first quarter and $20 billion in the second quarter. As a result, the outflow will not exceed $80 billion, according to the Finance Ministry.

World Bank worsens forecast for Russia’s GDP decline in 2015 - to 3.8% from 2.7%

The World Bank has drastically worsened its forecast for Russia’s GDP decline in 2015 - to 3.8% from 2.7% that was set in the previous forecast.

That is according to the bank’s Russian economic report released on Wednesday.

The new forecast is close to the estimates of Russia’s Economic Development Ministry which expects GDP to fall by 3.9% maximum in 2015.

The World Bank only slightly worsened its forecast for Russia’s GDP decline in 2016 - to 0.7% from 0.6%

In 2017, the bank expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 1.5%.

The bank names unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and oil prices drop among the main factors of a deeper recession in Russia.

"Due to the severity of the projected contraction and the vulnerability of lower-income households to growth shocks, poverty rates are projected to increase sharply," according to the report.

The World Bank has not changes its forecast for oil price in 2015, which is $53 per barrel.

The organization expects that the cost of foreign borrowing will remain high, and limited access to international financial markets will deter investment and fixed capital formation during the entire 2015.

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GDP Capital flight

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