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Russian Finance Ministry's new initiative will cause 10% decline in oil output by 2020

The Finance Ministry’s innovation implies using the dollar’s non-forecast exchange rate for calculating price ratio for mineral extraction tax

© Ruslan Shamukov/TASS

MOSCOW, September 21. /TASS/. The new initiative of the Russian Finance Ministry regarding the mineral extraction tax will cause a reduction of investment in the oil sector by at least 20-30%, which in its turn may trigger a 10% decline in oil output, Director-General of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov told TASS on Monday.

"It will be difficult to stop this trend," the expert said.

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West Siberian fields contribute the most in oil output, Simonov said, adding that development of new fields in new regions is necessary for maintaining the current level of output. "We can hardly expect development of green field in new regions amid such tax policy," he said, adding that a reduction of investment will inevitably lead to a decline in output and thus to a decline in tax basis.

As was reported earlier the Finance Ministry’s innovation implies using the dollar’s non-forecast exchange rate for calculating price ratio for mineral extraction tax. If the Ministry projects the dollar rate within 63.5-66 rubles per dollar for the mineral extraction tax formula the rate will total 43.8-50 rubles per dollar. Similar adjustment will be made for limit values of crude export duty.

This scheme will allow receiving additional revenues worth 609 bln rubles ($9.1 bln) in 2016, 525 bln rubles ($7.9 bln) - in 2017, and 476 bln rubles ($7.1 bln) - in 2018, which totally amounts to 1.6 trillion rubles ($24 bln). However, simultaneously 322 bln rubles ($4.8 bln) worth of losses related to income tax will arise, with 90% of them falling on Russian constituent entities.

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