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Forecast: Average annual exchange rate to be 61 rubles/dollar against $52/bbl oil prices

August 25, 2015, 10:49 UTC+3
Recent volatility of the ruble rate will remain until oil prices find their balance, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development says
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© ITAR-TASS/Sergei Fadeichev

KUALA LUMPUR, August 25. /TASS/. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development forecasts the average annual exchange rate of 61 rubles a dollar against $52/bbl oil prices, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukayev said on Tuesday.

The average annual ruble rate in 2016 will be stronger than this year, the minister added.

"The rate for 2015 will not be practically revised: 61 rubles a dollar against the oil price of $52 a barrel," Ulyukayev said. The previous outlook contemplated the rate of 60 rubles a dollar vs. the oil price of $50 a barrel.

"There will be a minor adjustment in 2016 but we do not see the room for a major weakening of the ruble rate. Certainly, it will be weaker than in our outlook for 2016-2018 but not in comparison to the average rate of 2015," the minister said.

The average annual dollar rate was expected at the level of 56.8 rubles a dollar in 2016, 54.5 rubles a dollar in 2017, and 53.2 rubles a dollar in 2018 according to the latest official outlook of the Economic Development Ministry prepared in May.

The average annual rate equaled 57 rubles a dollar in incomplete eight months of this year and the rate above 70 rubles a dollar "means the average annual rate will be slightly above 60 rubles a dollar this year," Ulyukayev said.

Recent volatility of the ruble rate will remain until oil prices find their balance, the minister said. "The rate volatility will calm down as soon as markets feel the new oil price balance. Nobody knows when this will take place," he added.

The dollar rate was above 71 rubles a dollar during the Monday session on the Moscow Exchange but later dropped below 70 rubles a dollar.

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